NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	6.7 [500]		MVP	Pau Gasol (CHI): +25.0%
Detroit Pistons	101		Comeback	2.8 [262]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -14.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.08	0.07	18	76%	0.25	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	6	92%	0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.05	-0.03	6	62%	0.17	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	9	44%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	17	57%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	0.04	0.05	13	47%	0.03	5	-0.14	8	75%	0.06

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.03	-0.02	16	59%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	6	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	13	52%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Darrun Hilliard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	16	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	9	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	10	30%	-0.09
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	20	44%	-0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	6	17%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.4	25.3	15.8	25.3	2.5	34.2	125.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +67.4%

CHI +5.4%

DET -20.4%

DET -4.3%

CHI +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	14.8	14.9	119.4	107.4	105.1
season	14.8	15.0		103.7	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		105.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.8	14.9	16.0	18.6	16.0
DET	15.8	13.9	14.0	15.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	37	38	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.11	18	-8	26	16.6	15.6	1.03	16.1	13.9	2.13
Taj Gibson	69	70	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-1	12	15.7	16.8	-1.07	15.2	13.7	1.53
Doug McDermott	47	47	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.07	16	-6	22	16.5	15.5	0.95	15.1	14.5	0.68
Nikola Mirotic	39	40	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	0	10	16.3	15.8	0.49	16.1	13.9	2.25
E'Twaun Moore	34	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-3	16	16.1	15.9	0.19	14.9	14.7	0.18
Jimmy Butler	73	74	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	9	-8	16.1	15.5	0.57	14.2	17.1	-2.97
Pau Gasol	71	72	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	11	-12	16.0	16.0	-0.06	14.0	17.5	-3.51
Bobby Portis	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	10	-10	17.3	15.9	1.39	11.5	15.0	-3.53
Tony Snell	32	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.19	-10	20	-30	14.9	16.6	-1.67	15.7	14.4	1.30
Derrick Rose	56	56	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	18	-26	15.6	16.6	-1.03	13.9	16.1	-2.13

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	65	66	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-13	16	14.4	15.7	-1.22	15.4	17.6	-2.19
Reggie Jackson	64	65	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-18	26	14.1	16.3	-2.24	16.2	15.5	0.77
Andre Drummond	65	66	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-16	22	14.8	14.9	-0.08	16.2	15.6	0.63
Darrun Hilliard	3	3	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-8	6	21.0	14.6	6.40	26.0	15.7	10.33
Ersan Ilyasova	69	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-10	10	14.2	16.4	-2.22	16.2	15.4	0.82
Marcus Morris	77	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-10	10	14.9	14.6	0.27	15.6	17.5	-1.92
Anthony Tolliver	25	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	0	-10	16.4	14.2	2.22	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Aron Baynes	29	27	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	6	-22	14.9	14.8	0.08	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Brandon Jennings	30	28	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	8	-26	16.3	14.1	2.24	15.5	16.2	-0.77
Stanley Johnson	43	43	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.00	-21	11	-32	14.9	14.8	0.10	17.0	15.2	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 100, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.5,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.9%
BOS 105, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0,0	92.9%
PHX 107, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.35,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.07,0,0.02,0	92.6%