NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	6.0 [630]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +11.6%
Utah Jazz	81		Comeback	2.5 [583]		LVP	Richard Jefferson (UTA): -17.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	11	60%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Evan Fournier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Timofey Mozgov	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.10	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Randy Foye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	10	35%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.04	13	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	9	58%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Anthony Randolph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	6	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.04	0.02	15	55%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.06	-0.03	9	33%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
John Lucas III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	16	58%	0.13	7	-0.21	6	83%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	10	25%	-0.14	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.0	28.5	15.7	25.5	2.4	33.4	132.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.1%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +23.3%

DEN +5.9%

UTA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.8	15.1	107.5	88.0	105.2
season	14.0	16.2		104.5	102.1
opponent	14.8	14.9		109.6	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	16.0	12.4	18.4	15.4
UTA	14.2	15.3	17.6	15.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	54	54	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.07	26	-7	33	16.1	14.3	1.85	15.9	15.7	0.21
Randy Foye	59	58	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.01	22	-3	25	16.7	13.0	3.71	15.1	17.0	-1.93
Kenneth Faried	54	52	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.23	13	6	7	16.2	14.2	2.02	16.0	15.5	0.41
Andre Miller	50	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.15	19	0	19	16.1	14.5	1.53	16.2	15.3	0.90
Nate Robinson	21	20	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	11	-3	17.9	14.6	3.23	18.2	15.1	3.09
Ty Lawson	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.15	16	3	13	15.0	16.1	-1.09	15.1	17.3	-2.28
Darrell Arthur	38	39	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.27	10	9	1	13.4	16.7	-3.31	16.2	15.5	0.78
Anthony Randolph	23	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	17	-15	13.2	16.1	-2.84	17.4	15.2	2.15
Jordan Hamilton	36	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	28	-37	15.5	15.3	0.19	14.2	16.8	-2.61
Timofey Mozgov	39	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	26	-33	14.3	16.1	-1.85	15.7	15.9	-0.21
Evan Fournier	27	27	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	24	-29	12.7	16.5	-3.79	16.1	15.6	0.52

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	51	51	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-16	13	14.7	17.1	-2.46	14.8	16.0	-1.26
Gordon Hayward	77	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	-9	-1	15.5	17.4	-1.93	15.8	13.2	2.62
John Lucas III	67	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.17	-14	-5	-9	15.4	16.8	-1.34	15.1	16.0	-0.96
Rudy Gobert	21	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-15	11	18.1	15.1	3.00	15.0	15.5	-0.46
Marvin Williams	34	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	-9	-1	16.7	15.3	1.42	14.5	15.9	-1.35
Derrick Favors	67	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-7	-5	15.5	16.6	-1.07	15.0	16.4	-1.37
Jamaal Tinsley	20	22	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-13	7	18.1	15.1	3.02	16.0	15.2	0.85
Enes Kanter	64	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	-7	-5	15.7	15.9	-0.11	16.1	13.6	2.50
Alec Burks	59	59	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.19	-24	5	-29	15.8	15.8	-0.01	15.5	15.0	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.5,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 104, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	93.1%
CHI 111, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.29,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.04,0,0,0	92.9%
NYK 95, CLE 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.46,0.27,0.21,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.08,0	92.5%