NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	6.0 [604]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +26.6%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	2.7 [563]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -12.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.11	-0.01	10	79%	0.27	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.06	0.01	9	73%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.06	0.02	24	44%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	12	41%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	13	42%	-0.02	4	-0.10	14	64%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.08	0.01	7	74%	0.17	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	14	55%	0.03	0	0.00	12	83%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	11	46%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	12	59%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.5	28.3	15.7	28.2	2.5	34.3	138.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.5%

ORL +1.0%

ORL +19.6%

ORL +1.5%

TOR -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.7	15.1	15.3	115.6	105.5	106.0
season	15.4	15.0		110.1	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		111.5	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	17.1	16.0	17.2	16.7
TOR	13.4	16.4	16.0	14.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	55	55	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	-3	14	17.3	15.9	1.39	15.3	14.9	0.39
Mickael Pietrus	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	4	0	15.9	17.9	-2.06	15.7	14.2	1.44
Dwight Howard	62	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	2	4	16.1	18.2	-2.10	15.3	14.7	0.55
Ryan Anderson	34	35	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.05	9	-1	10	18.6	15.6	2.93	15.4	14.9	0.44
Jason Williams	75	76	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	11	-14	16.7	17.1	-0.48	14.8	16.8	-2.04
Anthony Johnson	15	15	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	-3	14	17.1	16.7	0.48	16.8	14.8	2.04
Rashard Lewis	56	56	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.21	-1	9	-10	15.6	18.6	-2.93	14.9	15.4	-0.44
Marcin Gortat	28	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.08	2	6	-4	18.2	16.1	2.10	14.7	15.3	-0.55
Matt Barnes	6	5	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	3	2	15.7	16.8	-1.14	17.8	14.9	2.86
Vince Carter	67	68	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	12	-16	17.1	15.8	1.28	14.3	17.4	-3.13

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	6	5	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.07	6	-14	20	12.3	15.3	-2.96	21.8	16.4	5.36
Sonny Weems	38	37	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-13	18	15.3	14.9	0.42	16.8	16.7	0.18
DeMar DeRozan	33	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-4	0	14.3	15.5	-1.20	16.3	17.0	-0.71
Chris Bosh	72	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-5	2	15.5	13.5	1.99	16.1	19.1	-3.04
Amir Johnson	55	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-5	2	14.5	16.0	-1.49	17.7	15.3	2.39
Jose Calderon	66	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-3	-2	14.8	15.8	-0.91	16.6	17.2	-0.59
Hedo Turkoglu	78	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	0	-8	15.1	15.0	0.12	16.7	17.1	-0.40
Andrea Bargnani	48	51	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.10	-14	6	-20	15.8	14.3	1.47	16.0	17.7	-1.65
Jarrett Jack	59	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.14	-14	6	-20	15.4	14.6	0.83	17.3	15.7	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.44,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	93.7%
DEN 100, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.5,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.23,0.14,0.12,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.1%
NOK 88, POR 75	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	92.9%