NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	98		Excitement	4.1 [1018]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +16.0%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.4 [301]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -9.7%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.04	0.05	12	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	8	87%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.03	0.02	12	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	90%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Jerian Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.04	22	58%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	43%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	-0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	6	57%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	16	53%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.4	27.1	14.8	26.4	3.4	36.5	136.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +57.3%

NYK +4.9%

MIA -13.2%

NYK +0.8%

NYK +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	16.4	14.9	112.6	103.4	105.1
season	15.6	15.5		103.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.4	15.7	16.4	18.0	16.7
MIA	19.6	17.0	16.3	13.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	64	66	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.07	19	-11	30	16.1	18.1	-1.95	17.3	13.9	3.42
Robin Lopez	58	61	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.05	18	-10	28	16.5	16.9	-0.41	17.9	13.0	4.97
Jose Calderon	61	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-6	20	16.3	17.4	-1.10	16.8	15.5	1.36
Kristaps Porzingis	58	57	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	4	0	17.0	16.0	0.98	15.8	17.7	-1.96
Arron Afflalo	75	74	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	5	-2	17.0	14.4	2.60	15.8	19.9	-4.09
Lance Thomas	33	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	6	-4	16.0	17.0	-1.01	15.9	16.8	-0.82
Langston Galloway	27	27	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	12	-16	17.6	16.2	1.36	16.2	16.6	-0.38
Derrick Williams	33	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.17	-7	15	-22	16.8	16.5	0.31	15.6	17.0	-1.40
Jerian Grant	16	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	11	-14	15.6	16.9	-1.34	15.3	16.7	-1.35
Kyle O'Quinn	10	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	14	-20	18.8	16.4	2.42	14.4	16.7	-2.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	23	24	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-11	14	14.2	17.2	-3.03	17.7	16.2	1.51
Gerald Green	48	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-15	22	14.6	18.8	-4.21	17.0	16.2	0.74
Tyler Johnson	40	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-5	2	15.8	17.0	-1.11	16.7	16.6	0.16
Justise Winslow	41	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-6	4	16.0	16.9	-0.94	16.9	16.5	0.44
Dwyane Wade	55	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	16.7	16.1	0.61	16.5	16.9	-0.45
Chris Bosh	62	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-8	8	16.0	17.6	-1.62	17.2	15.1	2.13
Luol Deng	56	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-1	-6	17.3	14.9	2.40	16.4	17.2	-0.88
Hassan Whiteside	50	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.07	-18	10	-28	18.4	13.8	4.59	15.9	17.6	-1.73
Goran Dragic	60	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	7	-22	17.4	14.3	3.07	16.2	17.6	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 131, PHI 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
MEM 95, NYK 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.14,0.23,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	94.6%
MIA 105, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.28,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%