NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	5.7 [690]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +19.7%
Chicago Bulls	117		Comeback	1.0 [1167]		LVP	Greg Monroe (MIL): -12.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Carter-Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	14	69%	0.17	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.00	21	60%	0.16	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	17	46%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
John Henson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	32%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Jabari Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.17	-0.02	-0.07	18	32%	-0.04	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.04	0.00	21	64%	0.23	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	14	81%	0.27	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	7	57%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	61%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	6	85%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	17	47%	0.08	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.2	28.8	14.6	23.4	2.3	24.6	118.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +41.3%

CHI +18.8%

MIL -6.2%

MIL -4.7%

CHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	14.6	14.9	107.1	118.2	105.1
season	14.8	14.8		102.8	103.7
opponent	14.9	15.3		105.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.9	14.5	15.0	14.5	14.5
CHI	13.3	15.5	14.3	15.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad Vaughn	13	12	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-14	17	13.4	14.7	-1.27	18.0	14.1	3.86
Johnny O'Bryant	37	37	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.15	6	-17	23	14.4	14.5	-0.17	16.5	13.5	3.09
Giannis Antetokounmpo	76	75	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-10	9	14.1	15.7	-1.58	14.9	13.8	1.02
O.J. Mayo	41	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-7	3	14.8	14.3	0.50	14.5	14.7	-0.20
John Henson	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-4	-3	15.8	13.7	2.08	15.3	14.2	1.10
Greg Monroe	63	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	-4	-7	3	13.7	15.8	-2.08	14.2	15.3	-1.10
Khris Middleton	79	80	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	2	-15	14.5	14.3	0.17	14.1	16.7	-2.57
Michael Carter-Williams	78	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.15	-14	3	-17	14.7	13.9	0.80	14.1	16.7	-2.62
Jabari Parker	72	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.05	-21	10	-31	14.7	13.8	0.92	14.0	16.3	-2.27

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	81	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	1	9	14.6	14.7	-0.07	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Derrick Rose	73	72	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.08	15	-4	19	14.1	15.9	-1.79	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Jimmy Butler	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.05	13	-2	15	14.1	16.9	-2.82	14.5	14.5	-0.05
Pau Gasol	72	73	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	0	11	14.3	15.4	-1.10	14.3	15.0	-0.65
Tony Snell	37	37	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.23	1	10	-9	15.5	14.1	1.36	14.4	14.6	-0.21
Bobby Portis	42	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	8	-5	15.7	13.8	1.92	15.0	14.1	0.91
Nikola Mirotic	61	60	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	5	1	13.7	16.1	-2.35	14.6	14.4	0.21
Doug McDermott	21	22	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	11	-11	16.5	14.1	2.37	14.6	14.4	0.19
Kirk Hinrich	26	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	15	-19	15.9	14.1	1.79	14.9	14.3	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 103, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	94.5%
NOH 83, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
GSW 95, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.99,1	94.3%