NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	83		Excitement	5.5 [697]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (NOH): +20.0%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.0 [1172]		LVP	David Wesley (NOH): -15.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	-0.01	9	78%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.05	0.03	-0.09	22	52%	0.14	6	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	9	52%	0.02	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
George Lynch	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	62%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
David West	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	3	37%	-0.03	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Stacey Augmon	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	13	36%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	6	35%	-0.07	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.04	13	63%	0.15	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	16	53%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	16	59%	0.07	5	-0.06	7	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	4	30%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	36%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.07
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	-0.05	11	36%	-0.00	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.7	32.0	16.4	29.3	2.8	28.3	134.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.7%

MIA +10.1%

MIA +8.1%

MIA +15.0%

NOH -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	17.6	14.9	15.7	94.3	107.9	100.5
season	16.0	16.2		99.3	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.0	16.7	19.4	16.6	17.6
MIA	15.5	15.3	14.9	14.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	17	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-14	15	17.2	17.7	-0.48	17.4	14.4	3.05
Shammond Williams	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-13	13	11.2	17.9	-6.68	16.6	14.8	1.77
Darrell Armstrong	48	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-13	13	18.7	16.3	2.48	15.0	14.8	0.19
Robert Traylor	35	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-15	17	18.0	17.4	0.58	15.2	14.7	0.44
David West	33	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-5	-3	17.2	17.9	-0.76	14.2	15.4	-1.13
Stacey Augmon	54	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-6	-1	18.5	16.3	2.22	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Steven Smith	56	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	17.4	17.9	-0.49	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Jamaal Magloire	49	49	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	2	-17	17.8	17.4	0.34	15.0	14.8	0.24
David Wesley	60	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	4	-21	16.5	20.0	-3.48	15.0	14.8	0.22
Baron Davis	84	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	-2	-9	17.7	16.5	1.18	15.0	14.0	0.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	72	70	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-4	21	15.0	14.7	0.28	18.1	15.8	2.25
Eddie Jones	61	62	0.51	-0.00	0.51	0.07	15	-2	17	14.6	15.7	-1.14	18.2	16.2	2.03
Caron Butler	69	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	-2	17	15.0	14.6	0.36	17.3	18.7	-1.41
Dwyane Wade	71	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-2	17	15.0	14.8	0.19	16.6	20.9	-4.30
Lamar Odom	50	51	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	2	9	15.2	14.5	0.70	18.8	16.1	2.71
Udonis Haslem	41	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	11	-9	14.9	15.0	-0.10	16.6	18.5	-1.83
Rafer Alston	60	59	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	14	-15	15.2	14.3	0.97	17.1	18.6	-1.49
Rasual Butler	17	20	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	15	-17	13.8	15.2	-1.37	19.6	17.0	2.56
Samaki Walker	4	4	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.02	-7	20	-27	14.0	15.0	-0.98	15.5	17.7	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.88,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 73, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.61,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.8,0.91,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIL 106, CHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
TOR 92, VAN 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%