NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	5.4 [713]		MVP	Blue Edwards (VAN): +8.3%
Vancouver Grizzlies	100		Comeback	1.0 [1045]		LVP	Walt Williams (TOR): -15.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Rogers	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	10	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.01	0.05	20	71%	0.18	4	-0.10	8	100%	0.04
Jimmy Oliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Earl	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	12	46%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	16	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Popeye Jones	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	14	39%	-0.09	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.02

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	11	59%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	86%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	80%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	14	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Lawrence Moten	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	24	46%	-0.03	1	-0.03	9	44%	-0.06
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.6	28.2	15.6	26.3	3.3	30.5	129.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +37.3%

TOR -2.4%

VAN +17.9%

TOR -0.6%

TOR -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	VAN	NBA	TOR	VAN	NBA
this game	16.4	16.0	15.6	102.2	113.6	104.4
season	16.1	16.3		102.2	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.0		109.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	18.6	17.1	14.0	16.4
VAN	14.0	16.5	15.5	18.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Earl	15	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-10	12	17.5	16.1	1.32	15.3	16.1	-0.83
Jimmy Oliver	27	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-9	10	16.7	16.2	0.48	16.6	15.7	0.91
Carlos Rogers	51	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-9	10	16.1	16.8	-0.71	16.1	15.9	0.17
Marcus Camby	66	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-7	6	15.7	18.2	-2.45	16.1	15.8	0.26
Doug Christie	68	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-2	-4	16.0	17.4	-1.32	16.7	13.6	3.07
Popeye Jones	67	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	1	-10	17.3	13.7	3.65	16.0	16.0	-0.02
Walt Williams	73	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	7	-22	16.3	16.5	-0.13	15.4	18.3	-2.95
Damon Stoudamire	83	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	5	-18	16.3	17.1	-0.84	15.8	18.2	-2.49

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Peeler	70	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.20	12	-4	16	16.0	15.9	0.06	16.3	16.5	-0.17
George Lynch	54	56	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.00	16	-8	24	14.6	18.3	-3.71	17.5	14.5	3.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-1	10	16.3	15.1	1.19	16.1	17.2	-1.15
Lee Mayberry	55	57	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.07	10	-2	12	15.8	16.4	-0.60	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Bryant Reeves	66	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	1	6	15.7	16.8	-1.11	15.7	18.4	-2.64
Blue Edwards	43	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.29	-4	12	-16	17.2	14.8	2.39	16.2	16.5	-0.26
Greg Anthony	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	10	-12	16.4	15.8	0.60	16.4	16.3	0.09
Roy Rogers	37	37	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	12	-16	16.6	15.5	1.05	16.5	16.3	0.25
Lawrence Moten	18	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	12	-16	15.9	16.0	-0.06	16.5	16.3	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 71, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
DEN 96, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.6%
LAL 88, SAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%