NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	111		Excitement	7.1 [437]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +23.3%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	15.2 [23]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (DEN): -11.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.12	0.01	22	56%	0.25	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.04
Lou Williams	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	11	63%	0.21	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Brandon Bass	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	5	85%	0.16	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Julius Randle	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	7	47%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Larry Nance Jr.	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
D'Angelo Russell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	6	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Robert Sacre	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	51%	0.03	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Nick Young	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	75%	0.18	3	-0.10	6	83%	-0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	5	90%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.03	-0.01	21	56%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	15	66%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	9	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	8	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	12	37%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	9	25%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	30.2	15.5	24.3	1.7	32.0	132.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +20.1%

LAL +24.1%

DEN -3.7%

LAL +5.1%

LAL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	14.3	14.9	119.4	113.8	105.1
season	15.2	14.9		100.1	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.5		107.8	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.9	14.5	14.7	19.0	16.5
DEN	12.1	14.8	17.3	12.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	62	62	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-7	18	16.8	16.0	0.87	14.3	14.2	0.12
Jordan Clarkson	75	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-10	24	15.8	19.8	-4.07	14.7	12.6	2.05
Lou Williams	72	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.33	8	-4	12	16.3	17.5	-1.26	14.2	14.5	-0.33
Brandon Bass	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	1	2	16.9	16.0	0.88	13.8	15.2	-1.36
Julius Randle	53	54	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.38	-1	5	-6	17.7	15.0	2.72	13.7	15.1	-1.41
Roy Hibbert	27	28	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	-3	10	15.8	16.9	-1.09	16.3	13.4	2.93
Larry Nance Jr.	37	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.03	6	-2	8	16.0	16.9	-0.91	15.5	13.4	2.03
Robert Sacre	5	5	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	10	-16	17.0	16.5	0.48	8.6	14.6	-5.98
D'Angelo Russell	39	39	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.24	-14	18	-32	18.6	15.1	3.52	13.6	14.7	-1.07
Nick Young	34	34	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.01	-8	12	-20	14.8	17.6	-2.77	13.8	14.5	-0.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joffrey Lauvergne	31	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	2	-8	15.3	13.7	1.58	15.4	17.1	-1.69
Will Barton	75	74	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.59	15	-19	34	13.4	17.8	-4.48	16.9	15.3	1.62
Nikola Jokic	59	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-7	10	14.0	14.7	-0.76	17.6	15.0	2.57
Kostas Papanikolaou	21	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	3	-10	15.5	13.9	1.56	16.6	16.5	0.09
Darrell Arthur	36	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-8	12	14.3	14.2	0.11	18.4	15.3	3.08
Gary Harris	73	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	4	-12	14.5	13.5	1.02	15.6	19.5	-3.87
Jameer Nelson	58	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	1	-6	14.1	14.6	-0.51	16.7	16.4	0.28
Randy Foye	55	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.22	-7	3	-10	14.9	13.3	1.64	17.1	15.7	1.46
Kenneth Faried	62	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	5	-14	14.0	14.8	-0.88	15.1	19.4	-4.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.76,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 118, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.47,0.29,0.23,0.04,0	92.1%
NJN 101, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.01,0	91.7%
DAL 103, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.46,0.27,0.15,0.01,0,0,0	91.5%