NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	101		Excitement	6.7 [522]		MVP	Vince Carter (NJN): +17.9%
Toronto Raptors	90		Comeback	9.6 [58]		LVP	Rafer Alston (TOR): -15.9%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.03	26	66%	0.22	1	-0.05	7	86%	-0.00
Jason Collins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	9	53%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Clifford Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	57%	0.05	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.05
Zoran Planinic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney Buford	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15	-0.08	-0.04	0.04	15	44%	-0.02	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.12	2	-0.09	8	75%	0.04
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	11	61%	0.05	1	-0.06	11	82%	0.05
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	58%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.03
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.10	0.01	11	54%	0.01	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	29.4	17.7	28.0	2.8	34.4	140.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +15.2%

NJN +6.7%

NJN +20.7%

NJN +8.7%

TOR -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	TOR	NBA	NJN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.5	108.6	96.8	104.0
season	16.0	15.1		99.2	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.6		106.8	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	16.2	17.8	13.1	14.8	15.5
TOR	13.8	14.9	16.9	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	70	69	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.22	22	-11	33	14.8	17.5	-2.74	15.9	14.3	1.58
Jason Kidd	81	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-1	13	15.5	15.2	0.24	15.6	15.1	0.47
Rodney Buford	24	24	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-1	13	14.3	15.9	-1.52	15.8	15.4	0.39
Brian Scalabrine	87	87	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	1	9	15.3	17.8	-2.53	15.4	16.5	-1.06
Vince Carter	85	84	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	15.4	15.7	-0.31	15.3	17.1	-1.78
Travis Best	44	44	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	6	-1	15.2	15.7	-0.40	15.5	15.5	0.08
Zoran Planinic	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.14	4	7	-3	16.9	15.2	1.71	15.9	15.4	0.52
Clifford Robinson	16	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	13	-15	16.7	15.2	1.56	16.9	15.2	1.62
Nenad Krstic	42	44	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.04	-15	26	-41	16.8	14.4	2.37	14.4	16.5	-2.08

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	33	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-12	13	15.5	15.5	0.02	15.8	15.3	0.53
Pape Sow	43	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-10	9	15.7	15.4	0.27	15.9	15.1	0.83
Rafael Araujo	22	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-8	5	15.5	15.5	-0.07	15.5	15.4	0.11
Matt Bonner	36	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-7	3	14.6	16.1	-1.55	16.9	14.6	2.33
Rafer Alston	83	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-3	-5	15.3	16.9	-1.56	15.2	17.4	-2.19
Jalen Rose	92	92	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	-2	-7	15.6	5.0	10.62	15.4	17.0	-1.55
Morris Peterson	77	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	4	-19	15.5	15.4	0.08	15.0	17.7	-2.76
Chris Bosh	79	80	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	5	-21	15.9	13.3	2.61	15.1	17.5	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.07,0.14,0.16,0	93.0%
DEN 101, MIN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	92.8%
IND 89, NOH 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.33,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.01,0	92.1%