NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	114		Excitement	7.5 [362]		MVP	Gary Neal (WAS): +27.3%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.5 [174]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -18.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.27	0.17	0.11	0.01	12	87%	0.32	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.13	0.03	13	79%	0.29	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Ramon Sessions	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	7	80%	0.21	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	9	57%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	24	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	15	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.01	11	60%	0.21	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.04
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	7	82%	0.12	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.05	-0.00	15	81%	0.31	5	-0.25	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	12	71%	0.26	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.06
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.06	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.07
Josh Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	5	20%	-0.10	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	29.3	15.7	24.2	2.4	39.2	138.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +7.1%

MIA -7.7%

WAS +13.2%

WAS +36.8%

WAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	14.9	121.3	109.6	105.1
season	13.8	15.5		104.1	104.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.5	14.5	15.3	16.5	15.2
MIA	16.8	16.2	16.0	12.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	74	73	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.19	17	-6	23	14.8	16.8	-2.02	14.6	18.3	-3.74
John Wall	75	75	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-6	23	15.2	15.3	-0.06	15.0	17.3	-2.30
Otto Porter	67	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-2	15	15.7	14.1	1.60	16.1	13.7	2.38
Jared Dudley	67	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	5	1	15.1	15.6	-0.53	15.9	14.2	1.69
Bradley Beal	77	79	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	5	1	15.8	12.8	2.99	15.2	16.5	-1.32
Ramon Sessions	28	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	15	-19	15.4	15.1	0.26	16.1	15.1	0.96
Garrett Temple	16	15	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.01	3	8	-5	12.7	15.7	-3.04	16.4	15.2	1.16
Kris Humphries	36	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	11	-11	14.1	15.9	-1.74	15.2	15.6	-0.36
DeJuan Blair	3	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	13	-15	23.7	14.9	8.73	6.0	15.6	-9.63
Ryan Hollins	27	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	12	-13	15.9	14.9	1.00	16.5	15.0	1.53

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	67	67	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-18	25	16.3	13.3	2.99	16.2	12.7	3.57
Hassan Whiteside	47	47	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-13	15	15.6	15.3	0.34	14.7	15.7	-1.06
Goran Dragic	64	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-9	7	15.7	14.8	0.87	15.7	14.1	1.57
Dwyane Wade	66	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-10	9	14.7	17.0	-2.29	15.0	15.8	-0.81
Josh Richardson	14	14	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-5	-1	15.5	15.4	0.09	17.9	14.7	3.19
Josh McRoberts	27	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-5	-1	17.0	14.8	2.16	14.6	15.5	-0.87
Tyler Johnson	46	46	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	6	-23	15.4	15.4	-0.02	14.0	16.4	-2.33
Gerald Green	72	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.19	-12	1	-13	14.7	17.9	-3.18	15.3	14.9	0.46
Justise Winslow	67	66	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.19	-20	9	-29	15.0	16.4	-1.38	14.7	16.4	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.2,0.06,0.25,0.37,0.57,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 114, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.05,0	91.7%
PHI 85, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.2,0.27,0.2,0.46,0.66,0.04,0	91.5%
ORL 91, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.21,0.23,0.1,0	90.3%