NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	107		Excitement	6.6 [507]		MVP	Mason Plumlee (POR): +17.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.2 [858]		LVP	Nick Young (LAL): -13.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.08	0.03	9	71%	0.18	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	13	73%	0.23	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Damian Lillard	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	25	57%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Allen Crabbe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	5	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	11	45%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.11	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	70%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	14	68%	0.16	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	10	54%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	7	44%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	15	39%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	22	35%	-0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	6	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.7	27.2	15.6	24.3	1.0	31.2	123.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +82.3%

LAL -14.2%

LAL -19.6%

POR +3.7%

LAL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	LAL	NBA	POR	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	14.9	111.5	96.9	105.1
season	15.0	15.2		107.1	100.1
opponent	14.5	14.6		109.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	16.7	12.8	15.6	15.2
LAL	12.2	15.3	16.6	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	77	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	-0.02	22	-8	30	13.6	21.8	-8.17	15.3	12.9	2.44
Mason Plumlee	66	63	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.01	20	-6	26	13.0	20.3	-7.31	15.1	14.2	0.93
Allen Crabbe	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.01	14	0	14	16.5	13.9	2.55	14.2	15.3	-1.09
Maurice Harkless	47	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	5	4	16.5	14.1	2.41	14.8	14.7	0.10
Al-Farouq Aminu	64	64	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.04	7	7	0	14.8	16.0	-1.19	15.0	14.3	0.63
Noah Vonleh	38	36	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.04	3	11	-8	12.3	17.2	-4.88	15.0	14.6	0.43
Gerald Henderson	32	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	13	-12	18.4	13.6	4.80	14.1	15.1	-1.04
CJ McCollum	65	65	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	16	-18	16.2	13.3	2.83	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Tim Frazier	11	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	12	-10	13.5	15.5	-1.91	14.8	14.8	0.04
Ed Davis	30	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	20	-26	20.3	13.0	7.31	14.2	15.1	-0.93

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	43	42	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-11	8	14.3	15.1	-0.79	18.2	13.0	5.20
Metta World Peace	27	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-14	14	13.7	15.2	-1.52	18.5	14.2	4.35
Nick Young	37	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-8	2	13.9	15.3	-1.46	18.2	13.5	4.68
Lou Williams	48	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-8	2	14.2	15.3	-1.10	17.1	13.5	3.57
Jordan Clarkson	73	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-9	4	15.3	13.0	2.26	14.0	18.9	-4.90
Kobe Bryant	64	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-8	2	15.1	14.0	1.09	14.0	17.8	-3.79
Roy Hibbert	53	54	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-3	-8	15.1	14.3	0.79	13.0	18.2	-5.20
Julius Randle	64	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	2	-18	15.4	13.5	1.84	13.7	18.8	-5.14
D'Angelo Russell	71	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.04	-17	3	-20	14.6	15.3	-0.70	15.3	15.1	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.08,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.06,0.02,0,0	93.9%
ATL 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.02,0	93.8%
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	93.5%