NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	6.3 [520]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +28.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	1.2 [741]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -11.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.23	0.08	0.03	19	74%	0.28	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.02	10	67%	0.15	3	-0.05	7	86%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Mike Bibby	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	10	57%	0.10	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Randolph Morris	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.07	0.03	18	62%	0.20	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	12	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Primoz Brezec	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	11	18%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.03	23	43%	-0.04	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	29.4	15.7	26.1	2.5	34.5	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +68.4%

MIL -8.9%

ATL +5.8%

MIL -16.5%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	16.4	15.3	116.9	109.1	106.0
season	16.0	15.5		109.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		101.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.9	16.5	14.3	16.9	16.2
MIL	16.6	16.2	19.1	13.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	76	75	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-6	20	15.7	18.7	-2.96	16.2	17.5	-1.37
Mike Bibby	62	60	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-7	22	15.5	17.7	-2.15	16.9	15.2	1.75
Al Horford	46	47	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	-1	10	16.7	15.6	1.18	16.3	16.5	-0.17
Marvin Williams	66	66	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	2	4	15.8	17.1	-1.24	16.7	15.4	1.35
Zaza Pachulia	42	40	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.17	2	6	-4	15.9	16.4	-0.50	16.6	16.1	0.50
Josh Smith	68	67	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.38	-6	14	-20	16.0	16.6	-0.59	17.0	14.3	2.68
Joe Smith	16	16	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	0	8	18.8	15.6	3.22	15.9	16.5	-0.53
Maurice Evans	42	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	8	-8	16.3	16.1	0.22	15.1	17.5	-2.39
Randolph Morris	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	1.0	16.3	-15.34	9.0	16.5	-7.46
Mario West	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	1.0	16.3	-15.34	9.0	16.5	-7.46
Jeff Teague	25	26	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.18	-8	16	-24	19.0	15.0	3.99	15.7	16.6	-0.91

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	7	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-10	12	16.9	16.3	0.52	21.4	15.7	5.71
Primoz Brezec	7	6	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-9	10	18.9	16.2	2.70	18.0	16.0	1.96
Luke Ridnour	36	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-11	14	15.1	17.3	-2.19	18.4	14.6	3.74
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	1	-10	17.3	15.7	1.61	16.3	16.1	0.20
Jerry Stackhouse	40	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-4	0	16.5	16.3	0.23	14.5	17.6	-3.12
Carlos Delfino	63	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	16.0	17.2	-1.15	17.6	13.1	4.41
Ersan Ilyasova	35	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-4	0	16.5	16.3	0.14	15.1	16.9	-1.86
Kurt Thomas	64	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	2	-12	16.5	16.1	0.34	15.6	17.6	-2.05
Brandon Jennings	74	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	1	-10	16.4	16.4	0.02	15.3	21.1	-5.75
John Salmons	79	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	0	-8	16.4	16.6	-0.20	16.1	17.3	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 107, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.08,0,0,0	93.8%
GSW 86, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	93.8%
SAC 84, HOU 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.28,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.04,0	93.4%