NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	84		Excitement	7.7 [260]		MVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): +20.7%
Houston Rockets	81		Comeback	1.3 [312]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -25.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.16	0.00	7	67%	0.24	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.14	0.10	0.07	0.03	13	65%	0.18	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.07
Beno Udrih	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	15	41%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	12	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	10	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Sean May	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	10	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.26	-0.22	-0.05	-0.02	22	19%	-0.22	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Will Conroy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	54%	0.07	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	44%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	0.01	13	41%	-0.02	4	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	25	41%	-0.09	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.17

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.7	33.3	15.0	26.0	1.8	39.1	142.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +1.3%

SAC +8.7%

SAC +28.2%

SAC +6.0%

SAC +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	HOU	NBA	SAC	HOU	NBA
this game	18.1	13.9	15.3	92.3	91.0	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		103.7	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.0		106.1	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.6	17.4	19.4	20.4	18.1
HOU	14.3	10.9	16.6	14.6	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyreke Evans	64	60	0.66	-0.15	0.81	0.42	8	-5	13	17.8	18.6	-0.80	14.7	12.1	2.60
Carl Landry	73	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-4	11	18.0	18.4	-0.40	13.9	13.8	0.06
Francisco Garcia	54	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.48	-5	8	-13	19.3	16.3	3.03	12.9	15.5	-2.59
Spencer Hawes	54	50	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	-1	5	18.0	18.1	-0.12	13.9	13.9	0.03
Beno Udrih	70	68	0.20	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	0	3	18.4	17.0	1.32	14.4	12.1	2.28
Ime Udoka	44	43	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	4	-5	17.4	18.7	-1.36	12.7	15.0	-2.39
Garrett Temple	1	2	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	0	3	1.0	18.3	-17.26	1.0	14.2	-13.18
Donte Greene	21	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	3	-3	13.7	19.4	-5.66	11.0	14.9	-3.95
Joey Dorsey	24	23	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	3	-3	19.2	17.6	1.61	15.7	13.3	2.38
Omri Casspi	34	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	5	-7	18.8	17.6	1.16	15.4	13.0	2.42
Sean May	17	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	18.3	18.0	0.28	14.5	13.7	0.75

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Conroy	8	7	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-5	7	14.6	13.8	0.81	20.0	17.9	2.10
David Andersen	23	23	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.10	5	-8	13	12.3	14.4	-2.14	15.6	18.9	-3.35
Chase Budinger	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-9	15	14.0	13.8	0.23	17.9	18.2	-0.25
Jared Jeffries	48	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-8	13	14.2	13.5	0.74	20.5	15.4	5.06
Charles Hayes	33	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	5	-13	13.7	14.0	-0.35	16.5	19.1	-2.61
Kevin Martin	72	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	0	-3	13.9	13.9	-0.07	18.1	18.1	0.01
Luis Scola	73	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	3	-9	14.4	11.6	2.83	18.3	17.0	1.29
Aaron Brooks	81	84	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	2	-7	13.8	14.6	-0.81	17.9	20.0	-2.10
Shane Battier	74	77	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.39	-11	8	-19	13.7	14.8	-1.10	17.9	19.0	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.28,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 111, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.7%
NOH 81, BOS 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.16,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.01,0.09,0	93.4%
ATL 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.02,0	93.4%