NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	105		Excitement	5.8 [633]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +16.6%
Washington Wizards	96		Comeback	1.2 [448]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -9.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	13	77%	0.23	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	7	80%	0.20	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	-0.00	0.04	10	74%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	67%	0.14	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	41%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	20	44%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mario West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Richardson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.02	0.00	8	87%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.01	8	65%	0.16	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	21	53%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Dominic McGuire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	64%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	13	40%	-0.05	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.4	15.4	24.3	2.6	27.5	123.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +47.0%

WAS -2.9%

ATL +6.3%

WAS -2.2%

ATL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.6	17.3	15.4	122.1	114.3	105.7
season	15.4	16.1		104.2	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.7		107.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	16.8	18.0	17.7	16.6
WAS	16.3	17.5	18.9	16.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	79	77	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-3	15	16.2	21.6	-5.38	17.2	18.3	-1.12
Mike Bibby	64	62	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-7	23	16.3	17.5	-1.11	18.0	15.2	2.76
Josh Childress	76	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	1	7	16.5	17.5	-0.99	17.1	18.1	-0.95
Al Horford	64	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	2	5	17.0	15.6	1.39	18.3	13.9	4.41
Josh Smith	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	16.3	17.1	-0.76	16.9	17.9	-1.02
Zaza Pachulia	25	24	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	10	-11	16.4	16.7	-0.26	15.0	18.2	-3.23
Marvin Williams	45	43	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	6	-3	18.0	15.1	2.97	18.3	16.2	2.04
Mario West	3	4	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	5	-1	9.0	16.9	-7.90	12.7	17.5	-4.74
Acie Law	22	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	16	-23	17.5	16.3	1.11	15.2	18.0	-2.76

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oleksiy Pecherov	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	9.5	17.5	-7.95	6.0	16.9	-10.88
Nick Young	26	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-10	11	15.7	18.0	-2.33	16.3	16.8	-0.49
Andray Blatche	11	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-4	-1	15.5	17.5	-2.08	13.1	17.1	-3.99
Dominic McGuire	8	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	-3	-3	15.5	17.4	-1.95	14.0	16.9	-2.94
Caron Butler	57	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-8	7	17.9	15.8	2.13	16.9	16.0	0.84
Darius Songaila	34	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-7	5	15.6	18.4	-2.76	16.9	16.5	0.46
Brendan Haywood	54	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-9	9	18.6	14.9	3.67	17.2	15.6	1.63
Roger Mason Jr.	48	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.23	-2	-7	5	16.2	18.6	-2.36	17.1	16.0	1.08
DeShawn Stevenson	58	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-1	-7	17.8	16.0	1.77	17.0	15.8	1.23
Antawn Jamison	73	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	17.6	14.7	2.92	17.1	12.7	4.44
Antonio Daniels	49	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	6	-21	17.8	16.5	1.28	15.6	18.1	-2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.06,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, TOR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	94.0%
POR 107, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.08,0,0,0	93.9%