NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	8.1 [263]		MVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): +29.7%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	12.0 [77]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (SAC): -25.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	-0.00	10	85%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	13	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.08,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.06,-0.07	0.00	-0.07	-0.00	19	58%	0.18	5	-0.25	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.13,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	22	46%	-0.06	4	-0.13	8	75%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.15	0.02	22	64%	0.37	3	-0.08	12	75%	0.02
Ben McLemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.01	6	67%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	9	74%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.07	0.04	16	69%	0.09	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	39%	0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.18	-0.07	0.01	10	35%	-0.07	7	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	30.4	15.6	24.6	1.8	34.5	133.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +8.6%

SAC +23.8%

SAC +14.0%

TOR -1.1%

SAC +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.0	13.3	14.9	102.0	109.2	105.1
season	16.1	13.9		107.2	104.8
opponent	14.6	14.8		107.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	16.9	16.7	15.7	16.0
SAC	12.8	13.8	14.0	12.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	40	40	0.49	-0.99	1.48	0.23	9	-15	24	15.5	16.3	-0.73	12.7	13.7	-0.96
James Johnson	25	24	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.14	8	-14	22	15.8	16.0	-0.21	13.8	13.1	0.70
Norman Powell	7	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-3	0	18.6	15.8	2.81	14.9	13.1	1.75
Luis Scola	40	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-2	-2	16.2	15.8	0.45	14.4	12.5	1.86
Jonas Valanciunas	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-2	-2	16.0	15.9	0.03	14.2	12.6	1.64
Bismack Biyombo	55	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-3	0	16.4	15.4	1.03	12.8	13.8	-0.96
Cory Joseph	54	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-4	2	15.8	16.1	-0.32	12.8	13.8	-1.07
Kyle Lowry	82	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	-1	-4	15.8	16.5	-0.69	13.1	13.9	-0.76
DeMar DeRozan	75	75	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.48	-12	6	-18	15.8	16.4	-0.60	13.2	13.4	-0.16
DeMarre Carroll	76	76	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.47	-14	8	-22	15.9	16.2	-0.28	13.0	14.3	-1.30

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	83	86	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.42	15	-9	24	13.0	15.0	-2.05	16.1	15.1	1.02
Rudy Gay	74	76	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.35	16	-10	26	13.4	12.8	0.63	16.3	14.8	1.53
Ben McLemore	51	53	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.47	10	-4	14	13.0	13.5	-0.51	16.0	15.9	0.05
Marco Belinelli	55	55	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	-2	10	12.6	14.1	-1.47	15.9	16.0	-0.03
Rajon Rondo	89	91	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	13.0	15.8	-2.77	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Willie Cauley-Stein	16	18	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.04	3	3	0	14.2	13.1	1.18	15.6	16.0	-0.43
Seth Curry	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	15.8	13.0	2.77	16.7	15.9	0.86
Quincy Acy	29	27	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	12	-18	14.7	12.7	1.97	16.9	15.6	1.33
Kosta Koufos	30	28	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	-0.06	-13	19	-32	13.1	13.3	-0.24	14.8	16.4	-1.59
Omri Casspi	54	53	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.19	-9	15	-24	13.5	13.0	0.48	15.5	16.5	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.32,0.63,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 79, DAL 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.14,0.21,0.32,0.58,1	90.5%
MIL 98, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.68,0.74,1	90.5%
NYK 91, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	90.5%