NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	79		Excitement	7.9 [287]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +32.6%
Dallas Mavericks	83		Comeback	10.0 [205]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): -17.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	16	68%	0.23	4	-0.13	6	67%	-0.04
Wally Szczerbiak	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	18	62%	0.22	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Eddie Griffin	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	8	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Marko Jaric	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,0.33	0.33	0.03	0.31	0.01	24	46%	0.33	0	0.00	9	89%	0.07
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.07
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	12	48%	-0.01	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	15	34%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-0.03	13	31%	-0.10	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.5	30.2	15.8	25.1	1.0	40.8	137.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -58.9%

DAL +23.1%

DAL +52.5%

DAL +34.1%

MIN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.5	15.6	90.8	94.3	104.4
season	16.1	16.4		101.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.2	16.1	15.6	17.8	16.4
DAL	17.3	15.9	16.4	16.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Griffin	42	42	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.00	7	-11	18	15.4	17.4	-1.95	17.6	15.5	2.19
Mark Madsen	13	14	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-6	8	16.2	16.5	-0.31	19.1	16.0	3.06
Richie Frahm	1	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-3	2	18.0	16.4	1.60	0.0	16.7	-16.69
Troy Hudson	35	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	1	-6	17.5	15.7	1.89	15.4	17.3	-1.98
Rashad McCants	14	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	4	-12	16.5	16.4	0.10	13.5	17.1	-3.57
Trenton Hassell	79	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.46	5	-9	14	16.3	17.7	-1.47	16.9	12.7	4.27
Kevin Garnett	75	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-7	10	16.0	19.2	-3.19	16.6	16.0	0.58
Wally Szczerbiak	79	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.39	-4	0	-4	16.6	14.1	2.52	16.5	16.9	-0.41
Marko Jaric	67	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.41	-7	3	-10	16.4	16.4	0.02	17.0	14.9	2.07
Michael Olowokandi	30	29	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.41	-12	8	-20	17.4	15.9	1.45	14.7	17.4	-2.70

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	64	64	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.41	14	-10	24	16.2	17.4	-1.26	16.7	15.6	1.09
Adrian Griffin	57	57	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.55	7	-3	10	16.5	16.5	0.07	15.8	17.7	-1.91
Dirk Nowitzki	71	70	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.48	9	-5	14	16.7	15.6	1.06	16.6	15.5	1.17
Jason Terry	60	61	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.30	10	-6	16	16.5	16.5	0.05	16.9	15.2	1.74
Erick Dampier	42	41	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	3	-2	17.6	15.5	2.14	15.8	16.9	-1.11
DJ Mbenga	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	6	-8	13.5	16.6	-3.07	6.0	16.5	-10.53
Keith Van Horn	27	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	3	-2	14.7	17.3	-2.54	17.0	16.1	0.89
DeSagana Diop	31	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.07	-3	7	-10	15.9	16.8	-0.92	15.8	16.8	-1.00
Jerry Stackhouse	45	44	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	10	-16	16.7	16.3	0.39	16.3	16.5	-0.15
Devin Harris	41	39	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.10	-11	15	-26	17.0	16.0	0.98	16.7	16.1	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.14,0.21,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 91, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	91.3%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	91.3%
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	91.2%