NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	103		Excitement	7.8 [299]		MVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): +23.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Comeback	14.0 [35]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -20.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.13	0.01	9	74%	0.26	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.09
DeMar DeRozan	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	18	55%	0.29	2	-0.07	15	93%	0.06
Patrick Patterson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	12	45%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Cory Joseph	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Terrence Ross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Luis Scola	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	14	50%	0.06	5	-0.19	6	67%	-0.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	11	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.05	0.01	18	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Andre Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	44%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	21	48%	-0.02	8	-0.18	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	27.5	15.4	28.7	1.7	38.3	136.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -2.3%

TOR +40.3%

TOR +32.9%

OKC -5.4%

OKC -15.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	OKC	NBA	TOR	OKC	NBA
this game	16.1	13.1	14.9	104.0	100.0	105.1
season	16.1	14.4		107.2	111.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		104.4	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.3	15.1	16.5	15.4	16.1
OKC	11.2	14.3	12.3	14.6	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	56	55	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.26	22	-17	39	14.3	18.4	-4.06	13.1	13.1	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	60	61	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.59	6	-1	7	16.4	15.6	0.89	12.0	15.0	-3.02
Kyle Lowry	71	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	2	1	16.2	15.9	0.24	12.1	15.8	-3.71
DeMar DeRozan	75	76	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.45	2	3	-1	17.1	13.1	3.98	13.8	10.8	2.97
DeMarre Carroll	79	78	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	9	-13	16.1	16.1	0.00	12.3	16.3	-3.99
Terrence Ross	28	26	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.12	5	0	5	15.7	16.3	-0.54	16.2	12.0	4.18
Patrick Patterson	48	46	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.24	3	2	1	15.2	16.9	-1.65	14.6	11.8	2.80
Luis Scola	39	39	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	16	-27	18.0	14.9	3.09	11.5	14.2	-2.76
Bismack Biyombo	39	37	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.23	-1	6	-7	15.6	16.4	-0.89	15.0	12.0	3.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	54	54	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.04	7	-12	19	12.1	14.4	-2.38	17.7	14.2	3.53
Enes Kanter	34	35	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.20	-1	-4	3	15.2	12.0	3.19	15.0	16.7	-1.70
Nick Collison	30	32	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-5	5	14.5	12.5	1.94	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Andre Roberson	55	55	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-7	9	12.1	14.4	-2.31	17.1	14.8	2.35
Kyle Singler	12	13	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-1	-3	14.1	13.0	1.09	13.8	16.5	-2.68
D.J. Augustin	25	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.15	-8	3	-11	14.4	12.7	1.66	14.3	16.8	-2.48
Kevin Durant	79	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-8	11	12.6	15.3	-2.72	16.2	15.6	0.61
Russell Westbrook	73	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-8	11	12.7	14.4	-1.66	16.8	14.3	2.48
Serge Ibaka	68	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	0	-5	12.5	14.5	-1.94	16.4	15.4	0.98
Dion Waiters	48	49	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.30	-11	6	-17	14.5	11.8	2.74	14.9	17.3	-2.46
Anthony Morrow	12	13	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.57	-11	6	-17	13.6	13.1	0.53	14.2	16.4	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.84,0.9,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.73,0	91.8%
MIA 101, NJN 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.89,0.78,0.71,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.94,0.58,0	91.1%
TOR 84, WAS 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.78,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.53,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.96,0.85,0.9,0.74,0	91.1%