NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	5.6 [709]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +13.1%
New Orleans Pelicans	94		Comeback	1.1 [551]		LVP	Anthony Davis (NOP): -12.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.19	0.02	0.08	20	71%	0.16	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	63%	0.09	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Vucevic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	21	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	2	75%	0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	11	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.15	0.03	-0.03	12	33%	-0.01	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	15	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	19	52%	0.08	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	13	44%	0.00	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	12	41%	-0.08	2	-0.04	10	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	29.6	14.8	27.7	1.8	30.5	129.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +26.0%

ORL +11.3%

ORL +8.8%

ORL +1.6%

ORL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOP	NBA	ORL	NOP	NBA
this game	14.4	13.3	14.9	98.1	91.3	105.1
season	14.6	14.3		103.6	104.3
opponent	15.0	14.9		107.9	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.5	14.4	15.0	16.2	14.4
NOP	11.9	14.4	15.0	12.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	92	92	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	2	5	14.8	12.0	2.77	12.9	16.1	-3.18
Victor Oladipo	78	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	0	9	14.9	12.9	2.02	13.3	13.1	0.20
Jason Smith	34	34	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	-2	13	13.4	14.9	-1.55	14.4	12.7	1.73
Elfrid Payton	66	64	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	5	-1	14.7	14.0	0.72	12.9	13.9	-1.00
Dewayne Dedmon	27	26	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	-1	11	13.2	14.8	-1.62	14.9	12.7	2.23
CJ Watson	44	43	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.07	6	3	3	13.7	15.0	-1.32	14.4	12.4	2.04
Mario Hezonja	33	33	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	5	-1	12.5	15.3	-2.79	13.6	13.1	0.48
Tobias Harris	64	62	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	12	-15	14.9	13.7	1.14	12.9	13.8	-0.88
Nikola Vucevic	74	72	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.23	-3	12	-15	15.4	12.2	3.13	12.5	14.9	-2.36
Aaron Gordon	11	12	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.04	3	6	-3	11.8	14.7	-2.92	12.4	13.4	-0.95
Shabazz Napier	2	2	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	12	-15	18.0	14.4	3.64	8.0	13.4	-5.36

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	49	50	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.22	8	-17	25	12.0	14.4	-2.43	15.8	13.1	2.69
Dante Cunningham	45	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-11	13	13.8	12.8	0.93	14.1	14.7	-0.65
Alexis Ajinca	44	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-7	5	13.4	13.1	0.27	14.4	14.4	0.01
Eric Gordon	82	83	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.33	4	-13	17	12.8	15.2	-2.43	14.9	12.8	2.09
Alonzo Gee	22	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	2	-13	14.2	13.0	1.18	12.5	14.9	-2.38
Ish Smith	35	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	14.2	12.8	1.44	13.9	14.7	-0.73
Anthony Davis	76	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-7	5	13.0	14.0	-1.06	15.3	11.9	3.37
Toney Douglas	42	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	5	-19	14.6	12.3	2.23	12.7	15.7	-2.93
Ryan Anderson	57	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	3	-15	13.8	12.6	1.24	13.5	15.7	-2.22
Luke Babbitt	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	2	-13	12.5	14.4	-1.92	14.9	13.6	1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.08,0.15,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.29,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.5%
SEA 94, LAC 78	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.17,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.3%
IND 119, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.05,0,0,0	94.3%