NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	6.3 [568]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +12.1%
Boston Celtics	87		Comeback	1.1 [1028]		LVP	David Lee (BOS): -12.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	18	52%	0.14	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.00	0.09	0.00	18	50%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	8	65%	0.13	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	133%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.02	9	35%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	10	18%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	12	61%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	12	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.03	18	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	9	39%	-0.01	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	18	36%	-0.07	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
David Lee	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	29.6	15.4	26.2	2.5	34.4	132.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.4%

BOS -2.9%

SAS +2.6%

BOS -10.0%

BOS -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	14.8	13.3	14.9	91.3	86.1	105.1
season	15.7	13.9		109.0	104.5
opponent	15.0	14.7		101.9	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	13.0	14.5	16.8	14.8
BOS	14.8	13.2	12.1	13.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	46	43	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-6	20	13.2	16.1	-2.90	14.1	12.7	1.33
Manu Ginobili	52	50	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-4	16	13.8	15.7	-1.96	13.8	12.9	0.90
Boris Diaw	54	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	-3	14	12.7	17.0	-4.26	14.1	12.5	1.56
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	3	2	15.2	13.6	1.59	12.8	14.6	-1.80
Kawhi Leonard	72	71	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	15.5	13.2	2.24	13.2	13.5	-0.27
Rasual Butler	19	17	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	1	6	12.1	15.4	-3.32	13.9	13.2	0.69
Tim Duncan	61	61	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	3	2	15.4	13.8	1.63	13.3	13.4	-0.11
Tony Parker	58	58	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.21	-6	14	-20	16.1	13.2	2.90	12.7	14.1	-1.33
David West	18	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	13	-18	16.8	14.3	2.43	13.3	13.3	-0.02
Kyle Anderson	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	8	-8	10.0	14.9	-4.91	12.7	13.3	-0.66
Danny Green	62	61	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	14	-20	15.9	13.2	2.69	12.9	13.9	-1.02

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	29	29	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.14	6	-14	20	12.9	13.5	-0.62	13.5	15.3	-1.78
Tyler Zeller	14	13	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-5	2	13.1	13.3	-0.27	16.8	14.5	2.37
David Lee	46	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-8	8	12.8	13.8	-1.00	14.6	14.9	-0.32
Evan Turner	31	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-8	8	14.2	12.9	1.28	15.2	14.6	0.56
Jonas Jerebko	29	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-4	0	14.2	12.9	1.31	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Avery Bradley	62	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-11	14	13.1	13.6	-0.42	15.9	13.0	2.84
Jae Crowder	53	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	2	-12	12.5	14.1	-1.60	14.0	15.5	-1.53
Marcus Smart	80	83	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-7	6	13.1	14.2	-1.18	15.4	12.4	2.93
Amir Johnson	58	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	13.8	12.6	1.22	14.9	14.5	0.39
Jared Sullinger	46	49	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	2	-12	13.8	12.9	0.91	15.2	14.4	0.75
Isaiah Thomas	57	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.14	-15	7	-22	13.4	13.2	0.14	13.3	16.8	-3.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.27,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 90, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.15,0.11,0.05,0.02,0	95.2%
ATL 107, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	95.0%
DET 109, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.8%