NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	112		Excitement	7.8 [301]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +30.4%
Indiana Pacers	103		Comeback	4.5 [349]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -9.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.11	0.20	0.00	13	61%	0.30	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.02
Jeff Green	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23	0.06	0.16	-0.01	6	100%	0.29	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	90%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.02	6	93%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	4	42%	0.06	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Courtney Lee	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	54%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	11	37%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	11	39%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.06	0.01	8	95%	0.27	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	15	56%	0.16	5	-0.15	6	83%	-0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Lavoy Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	57%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	15	50%	0.05	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.03	-0.02	12	33%	0.01	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	1.8	26.1	16.5	27.3	2.4	34.5	137.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +23.5%

IND -1.2%

MEM +7.7%

MEM +17.4%

MEM +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	IND	NBA	MEM	IND	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	14.9	116.7	107.3	105.1
season	15.7	14.6		103.4	103.2
opponent	14.9	14.8		101.6	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.4	15.4	16.0	15.2	15.2
IND	15.6	14.0	15.3	14.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	61	61	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-5	19	14.2	17.1	-2.98	14.2	15.8	-1.61
Zach Randolph	55	55	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.07	17	-8	25	16.6	13.4	3.16	15.6	13.6	2.08
Marc Gasol	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.04	13	-4	17	15.4	15.0	0.42	15.2	13.9	1.22
Mike Conley	57	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	6	-3	16.2	13.8	2.36	15.4	13.8	1.59
Courtney Lee	57	56	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	0	9	16.0	14.2	1.80	15.0	14.4	0.60
JaMychal Green	27	29	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.21	-1	10	-11	13.0	16.1	-3.08	15.0	14.7	0.31
Beno Udrih	39	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	3	3	13.8	16.2	-2.36	13.8	15.4	-1.59
Brandan Wright	32	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.20	-4	13	-17	15.0	15.4	-0.42	13.9	15.2	-1.22
Matt Barnes	44	44	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	14	-19	14.7	15.7	-1.09	13.9	15.5	-1.59
Tony Allen	44	43	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	16	-23	16.1	14.6	1.51	14.9	14.7	0.20

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	37	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.10	-4	-5	1	15.4	14.4	0.98	16.3	14.6	1.72
Rodney Stuckey	53	53	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.17	4	-13	17	13.6	16.2	-2.60	14.6	16.0	-1.44
Myles Turner	38	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-12	15	14.3	15.1	-0.81	14.1	16.0	-1.94
CJ Miles	46	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-10	11	13.5	15.9	-2.32	13.5	16.9	-3.36
Chase Budinger	29	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-10	11	14.2	15.0	-0.78	13.1	16.2	-3.18
George Hill	76	75	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-6	3	14.9	14.1	0.82	16.0	12.6	3.37
Lavoy Allen	13	12	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	17.3	14.3	2.96	18.7	14.8	3.90
Paul George	67	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	1	-11	15.0	14.2	0.78	16.2	13.1	3.18
Ian Mahinmi	57	57	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	1	-11	15.2	14.1	1.05	16.0	14.2	1.80
Monta Ellis	64	65	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.20	-21	12	-33	15.4	13.4	2.02	15.0	15.8	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.61,0.21,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 114, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.15,0.04,0	91.9%
HOU 112, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.06,0.16,0	91.1%
PHI 106, NYK 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.11,0.02,0.01,0	90.8%