NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	114		Excitement	8.4 [211]		MVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): +26.1%
Atlanta Hawks	109		Comeback	2.4 [298]		LVP	Nick Collison (SEA): -16.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26	0.09	0.17	-0.00	8	75%	0.29	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.22	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.22	0.22	0.02	0.02	20	72%	0.24	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Chris Wilcox	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	10	80%	0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	-0.02	0.10	-0.00	5	64%	0.20	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	22	51%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Johan Petro	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	4	30%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Nick Collison	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	0.00	12	77%	0.25	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.14	0.14	-0.00	0.13	-0.01	11	58%	0.23	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	17	59%	0.08	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.04
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	0.02	17	50%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	26.3	16.4	24.3	1.6	34.3	129.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +23.4%

SEA +13.7%

SEA +23.4%

ATL -9.1%

ATL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	ATL	NBA	SEA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.1	15.6	126.7	119.8	104.4
season	15.0	15.6		108.9	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		109.3	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.5	18.1	14.0	18.4	15.8
ATL	15.3	17.0	14.8	17.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	55	57	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.40	9	-4	13	14.9	17.1	-2.13	15.2	17.6	-2.43
Ray Allen	83	84	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-6	17	15.4	19.9	-4.45	16.5	11.4	5.02
Rashard Lewis	87	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	16.0	9.0	6.99	16.2	9.0	7.22
Mikki Moore	33	31	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	-3	11	16.6	15.3	1.34	16.9	15.6	1.27
Damien Wilkins	32	33	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	7	-9	16.1	15.6	0.52	13.1	17.8	-4.67
Luke Ridnour	61	60	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	-2	9	15.2	16.8	-1.58	17.5	13.4	4.11
Johan Petro	33	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	4	-3	16.2	15.5	0.77	18.1	14.9	3.22
Nick Collison	59	61	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.16	-8	13	-21	15.8	15.7	0.07	15.4	17.5	-2.09
Rick Brunson	7	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	11	-17	19.9	15.4	4.45	11.4	16.5	-5.02

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	43	43	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-6	7	16.7	15.5	1.15	16.3	15.3	1.00
Esteban Batista	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-1	-3	17.0	16.0	1.02	12.1	16.2	-4.05
Royal Ivey	26	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	4	-13	19.5	14.7	4.86	17.5	15.0	2.45
Josh Smith	66	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-8	11	16.3	15.4	0.86	15.8	15.5	0.29
Joe Johnson	77	78	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-9	13	15.7	18.0	-2.29	16.1	13.2	2.89
Salim Stoudamire	26	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	5	-15	13.8	17.0	-3.16	12.8	16.8	-3.94
Marvin Williams	68	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-6	7	14.7	20.1	-5.38	15.2	17.3	-2.15
Al Harrington	77	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-4	3	16.5	13.6	2.95	16.3	12.9	3.47
Josh Childress	64	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.37	-10	5	-15	16.1	15.9	0.20	15.6	16.1	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.16,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, DET 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.02,0	92.6%
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	92.4%
MEM 112, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.61,0.21,0.15,0,0	91.9%