NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	94		Excitement	4.3 [967]		MVP	Gerald Green (MIA): +10.1%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.8 [844]		LVP	Nicolas Batum (CHA): -18.7%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Hawes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jeremy Lin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.01	0.04	10	65%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Al Jefferson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.03	14	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
PJ Hairston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Cody Zeller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	4	58%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.01	0.08	16	46%	-0.06	0	0.00	9	89%	-0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.05	0.04	12	35%	-0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.00	15	63%	0.11	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.01	0.04	8	81%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.04	13	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	125%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	73%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	16	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	25.4	14.7	29.4	2.4	36.5	139.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.4%

MIA +3.7%

CHA -6.0%

CHA -2.6%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.7	14.9	100.0	109.5	105.1
season	15.1	15.5		105.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.0	18.1	16.2	13.9	15.8
MIA	14.4	13.2	14.4	16.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Roberts	27	27	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-14	18	16.2	15.6	0.61	14.1	14.9	-0.76
Marvin Williams	77	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.20	4	-14	18	14.9	19.7	-4.78	15.0	13.6	1.33
Frank Kaminsky	13	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-6	2	16.1	15.7	0.34	14.0	14.8	-0.80
PJ Hairston	35	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-4	-2	16.7	15.3	1.43	14.9	14.5	0.40
Spencer Hawes	36	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.18	-14	4	-18	16.6	15.3	1.34	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Jeremy Lin	53	54	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-8	6	15.4	16.2	-0.81	14.8	14.6	0.15
Al Jefferson	42	42	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	16.8	15.0	1.80	14.3	15.0	-0.73
Nicolas Batum	64	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-7	4	15.2	17.1	-1.93	14.9	14.2	0.77
Cody Zeller	56	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	16.1	15.3	0.79	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Kemba Walker	67	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.14	-14	4	-18	15.6	16.2	-0.61	14.9	14.1	0.76

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	49	49	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.13	26	-16	42	13.2	16.3	-3.16	17.9	13.5	4.45
Chris Bosh	68	66	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	0	10	14.2	15.8	-1.56	15.3	17.0	-1.73
Hassan Whiteside	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	6	-2	15.1	14.4	0.68	17.2	14.9	2.27
Mario Chalmers	34	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	2	6	13.2	15.5	-2.32	17.8	14.7	3.12
Gerald Green	61	58	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	10	-10	14.7	14.6	0.07	15.8	15.8	-0.07
Goran Dragic	61	62	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	15.5	13.2	2.32	14.7	17.8	-3.12
Dwyane Wade	58	58	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.22	-2	12	-14	15.5	13.4	2.07	14.6	17.7	-3.05
Josh McRoberts	27	26	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	5	0	14.5	14.8	-0.30	16.7	15.4	1.30
Luol Deng	60	61	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	14	-18	15.3	13.6	1.78	14.7	17.8	-3.08
Udonis Haslem	20	21	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	9	-8	15.1	14.6	0.51	15.3	15.9	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
UTA 93, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%
NJN 72, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%