NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	5.4 [733]		MVP	Doug McDermott (CHI): +13.5%
Charlotte Hornets	101		Comeback	5.9 [248]		LVP	Lance Stephenson (CHA): -14.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.01	6	93%	0.14	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Snell	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	12	65%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.01	0.08	17	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	15	53%	0.05	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	6	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	4	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Gerald Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	13	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.04
Noah Vonleh	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	17	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	14	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.04	6	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	10	32%	-0.10	3	-0.05	5	40%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	37.2	16.7	28.2	2.5	36.2	148.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -5.4%

CHA +13.8%

CHA +36.0%

CHA +1.5%

CHA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CHA	NBA	CHI	CHA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.1	96.8	107.4	104.2
season	15.5	15.6		105.4	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.2		102.6	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.1	13.9	17.7	14.7	15.8
CHA	17.1	11.8	14.2	17.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-8	6	12.0	15.8	-3.80	21.0	14.8	6.18
E'Twaun Moore	23	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-8	6	14.2	16.3	-2.09	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Mike Dunleavy	50	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-7	4	16.4	15.0	1.46	14.5	15.3	-0.77
Kirk Hinrich	26	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-4	-2	16.5	15.5	1.08	15.2	14.8	0.49
Pau Gasol	71	70	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-15	20	15.3	17.1	-1.76	15.4	13.4	1.97
Aaron Brooks	68	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-6	2	15.5	16.5	-1.08	14.8	15.2	-0.49
Joakim Noah	46	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	2	-14	17.1	14.4	2.69	14.0	15.7	-1.68
Doug McDermott	44	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-3	-4	15.0	16.4	-1.46	15.3	14.5	0.77
Tony Snell	71	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-2	-6	16.3	14.2	2.09	14.9	14.7	0.22
Nikola Mirotic	70	70	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	15.3	17.0	-1.62	14.9	15.0	-0.10

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Henderson	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-6	22	14.4	16.1	-1.72	16.2	14.6	1.58
Marvin Williams	76	76	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	6	-2	15.5	12.4	3.02	15.6	16.3	-0.65
Jason Maxiell	51	50	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	1	8	15.1	14.6	0.56	14.2	17.5	-3.28
Kemba Walker	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	-4	18	14.1	16.1	-1.95	15.1	16.8	-1.66
Lance Stephenson	42	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-1	12	14.9	14.9	-0.05	16.0	15.5	0.52
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	71	72	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	11	-12	14.9	14.7	0.19	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Mo Williams	62	62	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.36	-4	14	-18	15.4	13.9	1.43	15.9	15.5	0.39
Bismack Biyombo	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	6	-2	14.7	15.0	-0.32	18.4	13.8	4.69
Noah Vonleh	3	4	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	13	-16	13.0	14.9	-1.95	8.0	16.1	-8.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.65,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1	94.6%
NOP 82, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
SAC 93, DAL 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%