NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	5.8 [650]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +21.7%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.6 [468]		LVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): -11.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	17	60%	0.21	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Gigi Datome	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	9	72%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.02	-0.05	9	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	0.03
Brandon Bass	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.01	-0.05	14	50%	0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	9	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Smart	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Phil Pressey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	12	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.19,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.11	0.01	23	64%	0.32	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	80%	0.08	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	33%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	39%	-0.05	1	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	16	41%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	29.3	15.7	30.6	2.5	40.2	142.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.5%

MIA -1.1%

BOS +15.5%

BOS +5.0%

BOS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.6	15.1	111.1	102.3	104.2
season	14.3	16.0		103.1	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.7	17.2	15.2	18.9	16.7
MIA	17.7	14.8	15.5	14.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	62	61	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.06	20	-10	30	16.4	17.4	-1.03	15.7	15.4	0.26
Jae Crowder	54	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-4	18	16.2	17.5	-1.30	16.0	15.1	0.99
Isaiah Thomas	62	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.13	10	0	10	16.3	17.6	-1.28	14.5	18.0	-3.49
Evan Turner	51	50	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-3	16	16.5	16.9	-0.40	16.1	14.9	1.19
Kelly Olynyk	35	37	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	5	0	17.3	16.4	0.92	16.6	14.9	1.77
Jonas Jerebko	44	42	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	17.5	16.0	1.52	14.5	16.7	-2.24
Gigi Datome	38	36	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.18	-1	11	-12	17.8	16.0	1.80	15.4	15.8	-0.35
Marcus Smart	47	49	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.23	-4	14	-18	17.3	16.1	1.25	17.1	13.8	3.24
Phil Pressey	2	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	11	-12	10.5	16.9	-6.36	4.0	15.8	-11.76
Gerald Wallace	24	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.03	-4	14	-18	17.7	16.3	1.40	14.3	16.1	-1.82
Tyler Zeller	31	29	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	14	-18	15.0	17.6	-2.58	15.9	15.5	0.46

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	33	31	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.12	8	-18	26	16.2	15.3	0.99	18.1	16.0	2.05
Henry Walker	48	48	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.08	6	-16	22	15.5	15.8	-0.37	15.9	17.7	-1.86
Shabazz Napier	12	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-13	16	17.0	15.4	1.59	17.7	16.6	1.19
Dwyane Wade	66	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	15.3	16.7	-1.47	16.4	17.7	-1.25
Tyler Johnson	59	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	1	-12	15.6	15.6	0.06	17.5	15.1	2.48
Mario Chalmers	62	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	-1	-8	15.4	16.3	-0.91	16.7	16.7	0.06
Hassan Whiteside	42	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	4	-18	16.2	15.1	1.04	15.1	18.2	-3.08
Luol Deng	62	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.02	-16	6	-22	15.5	15.9	-0.37	16.4	17.6	-1.22
Michael Beasley	56	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	1	-12	15.5	15.8	-0.25	17.6	15.1	2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.06,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 100, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.04,0	93.0%
SAC 97, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.41,0.27,0.16,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%
POR 110, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	92.7%