NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	97		Excitement	5.7 [691]		MVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): +15.2%
Orlando Magic	91		Comeback	1.8 [431]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -17.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.06	-0.06	19	55%	0.24	4	-0.09	15	87%	0.04
Kosta Koufos	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.02	9	72%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	7	65%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.01	-0.04	11	50%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	11	35%	-0.01	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Ben McLemore	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	12	31%	-0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.03	0.07	16	67%	0.11	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	11	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	20	42%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	12	29%	-0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	31.1	15.5	25.6	2.5	27.5	129.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +22.6%

SAC +22.2%

ORL -8.4%

SAC +6.2%

SAC +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	14.5	14.9	99.0	93.8	105.1
season	13.9	14.6		104.8	103.6
opponent	14.9	14.6		105.2	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	16.3	13.2	17.6	15.0
ORL	13.4	16.5	16.2	12.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	56	54	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.23	22	-16	38	14.4	15.8	-1.33	14.1	15.0	-0.92
Omri Casspi	64	65	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.30	18	-12	30	14.9	15.2	-0.36	14.8	14.0	0.85
DeMarcus Cousins	85	83	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.23	13	-7	20	14.4	19.0	-4.61	14.4	15.5	-1.13
Rajon Rondo	87	86	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	3	0	15.0	15.1	-0.10	14.3	16.2	-1.86
Kosta Koufos	41	41	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	5	-4	16.1	14.2	1.97	14.1	14.9	-0.76
Darren Collison	72	72	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.31	-9	15	-24	15.4	14.0	1.36	14.3	15.2	-0.84
Ben McLemore	51	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	13	-20	14.5	15.5	-0.94	15.6	13.4	2.28
Willie Cauley-Stein	34	34	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.00	-11	17	-28	16.3	14.3	1.94	14.9	14.3	0.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dewayne Dedmon	8	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-8	10	13.7	14.6	-0.86	20.3	14.6	5.69
Channing Frye	20	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.27	8	-14	22	11.4	15.4	-3.95	18.0	14.2	3.77
Evan Fournier	73	73	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.42	11	-17	28	13.4	17.9	-4.49	15.4	14.0	1.40
Jason Smith	17	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	0	-6	14.9	14.5	0.42	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Andrew Nicholson	14	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	18.2	13.9	4.30	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Shabazz Napier	22	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-6	6	14.3	14.6	-0.28	16.5	14.6	1.93
Aaron Gordon	40	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	0	-6	13.8	15.0	-1.17	15.9	14.3	1.54
Elfrid Payton	79	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-3	0	14.6	14.4	0.11	14.7	16.4	-1.76
Tobias Harris	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.35	3	-9	12	14.6	14.5	0.08	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Nikola Vucevic	52	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	4	-14	15.7	13.1	2.62	13.2	17.1	-3.93
Victor Oladipo	52	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	9	-24	16.2	12.6	3.57	13.5	16.9	-3.38
Mario Hezonja	32	33	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	4	-14	13.7	15.0	-1.27	16.6	14.2	2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.41,0.27,0.16,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 106, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.41,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	93.2%
BOS 100, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.06,0,0,0	92.9%
LAL 89, HOU 78	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%