NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	6.5 [499]		MVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): +15.4%
Atlanta Hawks	95		Comeback	1.2 [1099]		LVP	Dennis Schroder (ATL): -11.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	9	68%	0.11	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Luke Ridnour	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.06	-0.03	16	62%	0.14	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03
Andrew Nicholson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	64%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Victor Oladipo	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	18	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Channing Frye	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	10	48%	0.06	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,0.03,0.1,0.15	0.15	-0.03	0.13	-0.05	15	50%	0.25	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	9	77%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.02	17	56%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.03	5	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	0.01	-0.03	8	19%	-0.05	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.4	15.7	23.5	1.8	34.3	129.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.1%

ATL +13.5%

ATL +9.0%

ATL +6.7%

ORL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	15.1	92.6	101.1	104.2
season	14.9	14.9		100.4	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	14.6	14.6	14.0	15.0
ATL	12.2	14.8	16.1	19.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	25	26	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-11	15	15.5	14.8	0.72	15.2	15.6	-0.36
Kyle O'Quinn	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-5	3	17.5	14.7	2.79	13.7	15.7	-2.00
Dewayne Dedmon	22	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-9	11	13.4	15.5	-2.06	16.0	15.3	0.67
Channing Frye	48	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	2	-11	15.6	14.3	1.28	14.2	16.9	-2.64
Maurice Harkless	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-5	3	14.9	15.0	-0.09	15.9	15.3	0.57
Elfrid Payton	50	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-1	-5	15.8	14.0	1.80	15.2	15.7	-0.49
Nikola Vucevic	75	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-8	9	14.5	16.6	-2.10	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Andrew Nicholson	19	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	1	-9	16.2	14.7	1.53	15.3	15.5	-0.24
Willie Green	54	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-11	15	14.0	16.3	-2.29	16.8	13.7	3.07
Tobias Harris	73	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	1	-9	15.0	15.0	-0.01	15.5	15.3	0.24
Victor Oladipo	70	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	4	-15	14.8	15.5	-0.72	15.6	15.2	0.36

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	60	60	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-5	17	15.1	16.1	-0.98	15.5	14.1	1.43
DeMarre Carroll	60	62	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.14	12	-5	17	15.8	14.9	0.95	15.1	14.7	0.45
Paul Millsap	67	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	-1	9	15.4	15.7	-0.25	15.0	15.0	0.04
Kyle Korver	68	69	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	3	1	14.8	17.3	-2.46	15.2	14.3	0.89
Dennis Schroder	25	25	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	1	5	16.5	15.1	1.35	16.7	14.4	2.35
Jeff Teague	67	69	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	3	1	15.0	16.7	-1.70	14.3	16.8	-2.56
Kent Bazemore	48	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	11	-15	16.4	14.5	1.89	14.0	16.0	-2.00
Mike Scott	33	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	10	-13	16.7	14.8	1.86	14.4	15.3	-0.96
Shelvin Mack	14	13	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	8	-9	14.7	15.6	-0.91	17.0	14.7	2.33
Pero Antic	28	28	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.11	-3	10	-13	15.0	15.7	-0.70	14.6	15.2	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 104, LAC 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,1,1,1	93.7%
SAC 117, ATL 123	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.95,0.96,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	92.2%
CHI 71, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	92.0%