NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	7.7 [288]		MVP	Luke Babbitt (NOP): +35.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	100		Comeback	10.0 [155]		LVP	Eric Gordon (NOP): -20.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	75%	0.15	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	10	57%	0.05	1	-0.01	10	70%	-0.03
Greivis Vasquez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	15	41%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Lou Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	8	39%	0.06	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Kyle Lowry	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.33,-0.05	0.03	-0.08	-0.00	19	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.08

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.19	0.19	0.02	9	100%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.10	0.00	11	68%	0.22	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	12	67%	0.26	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	0	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.05
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.07	-0.03	13	46%	0.10	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Withey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	14	39%	-0.07	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.6	27.1	15.4	27.5	1.8	38.0	135.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +98.1%

TOR -22.3%

NOP +3.8%

TOR -22.8%

TOR -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NOP	NBA	TOR	NOP	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.1	106.6	109.9	104.2
season	15.6	15.8		109.1	106.3
opponent	15.2	15.0		106.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.1	15.8	16.1	15.6	15.9
NOP	17.4	17.7	13.3	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	69	69	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.08	10	-13	23	15.5	17.2	-1.70	15.7	15.8	-0.08
Terrence Ross	41	41	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.14	2	-5	7	15.1	16.5	-1.35	16.7	15.0	1.64
Tyler Hansbrough	16	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	16.6	15.7	0.82	16.1	15.7	0.37
James Johnson	65	64	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-3	3	15.9	15.8	0.17	16.7	13.5	3.24
Greivis Vasquez	27	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	16.4	15.7	0.74	16.1	15.6	0.50
Lou Williams	47	48	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	6	-15	15.8	16.0	-0.12	15.0	16.7	-1.69
Kyle Lowry	64	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.58	-1	-2	1	15.7	16.4	-0.74	15.4	16.7	-1.25
DeMar DeRozan	59	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.61	-1	-2	1	15.8	16.0	-0.17	15.7	15.9	-0.18
Amir Johnson	67	67	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.45	-12	9	-21	16.7	13.7	2.91	15.1	17.7	-2.59

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	48	49	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.45	9	-6	15	14.9	16.7	-1.83	15.4	16.5	-1.09
Tyreke Evans	63	65	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-6	15	16.1	15.0	1.04	16.4	14.7	1.62
Luke Babbitt	43	44	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-8	19	16.7	14.9	1.83	15.3	16.4	-1.06
Eric Gordon	79	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	3	-3	15.9	14.7	1.26	15.8	16.6	-0.81
Alexis Ajinca	52	53	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-6	15	15.5	16.1	-0.56	15.7	16.1	-0.37
Jimmer Fredette	0	1	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	1	1	0.0	15.8	-15.76	4.0	16.0	-12.02
Quincy Pondexter	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.27	-8	11	-19	16.2	15.4	0.88	16.0	15.8	0.19
Omer Asik	60	57	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.19	-7	10	-17	15.2	16.8	-1.54	16.5	14.9	1.51
Jeff Withey	9	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	6	-9	19.7	15.3	4.34	15.0	16.0	-0.99
Dante Cunningham	61	61	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	10	-17	15.0	17.2	-2.20	16.2	15.2	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.42,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 105, BOS 111	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.25,0.45,0.33,0.58,1	92.7%
ATL 109, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.33,0.29,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,1	92.2%
MIA 81, BOS 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.36,0.43,0.27,1	91.4%