NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	7.0 [239]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +94.5%
Boston Celtics	82		Comeback	52.8 [6]		LVP	Dana Barros (BOS): -20.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.01	-0.07	0.08	-0.01	20	46%	0.11	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.09	-0.00	7	82%	0.17	3	-0.21	3	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	47%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Jamal Mashburn	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.20	-0.01	-0.02	16	41%	-0.02	8	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,0.06,0.16,0.06,0.94	0.94	0.06	0.90	0.01	25	54%	0.98	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	86%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1	-0.10	0.04	-0.12	0.02	9	70%	0.05	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	19	32%	-0.17	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	10	23%	-0.13	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	24.3	16.3	27.0	2.0	38.0	131.8
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +51.5%

MIA -16.3%

MIA -18.3%

BOS +35.2%

MIA -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.9	15.8	91.0	93.2	99.6
season	16.6	15.0		101.3	98.1
opponent	15.8	16.7		100.0	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	14.9	18.2	17.7	16.7
BOS	14.9	19.4	16.0	13.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	72	71	0.38	-0.88	1.27	0.09	10	-11	21	16.4	17.5	-1.08	16.0	15.4	0.59
Clar. Weatherspoon	28	26	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.15	-3	2	-5	16.0	17.0	-0.95	15.3	16.1	-0.82
P.J. Brown	73	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.57	5	-6	11	16.3	18.2	-1.87	16.5	13.3	3.21
Alonzo Mourning	73	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.50	0	-1	1	17.5	12.9	4.60	15.8	16.7	-0.90
Tim Hardaway	74	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	3	-7	16.0	20.0	-4.03	15.8	16.2	-0.38
Terry Porter	60	59	-0.61	0.12	-0.73	-0.56	-2	1	-3	16.6	16.8	-0.26	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Dan Majerle	65	64	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.50	-11	10	-21	17.5	14.5	3.00	16.0	15.5	0.47

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Minor	48	49	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-11	23	14.4	17.7	-3.37	16.9	16.3	0.64
Paul Pierce	66	66	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.61	0	1	-1	16.3	14.7	1.55	17.0	15.7	1.35
Dana Barros	60	61	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.55	2	-1	3	15.9	15.8	0.10	16.7	16.6	0.06
Antoine Walker	76	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.50	2	-1	3	15.9	15.6	0.35	16.2	19.8	-3.68
Vitaly Potapenko	56	58	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.50	0	1	-1	15.7	16.1	-0.37	17.0	15.9	1.10
Tony Battie	32	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	0	1	16.1	15.7	0.37	15.9	17.0	-1.10
Damon Jones	28	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.07	-1	2	-3	15.8	15.9	-0.10	16.6	16.7	-0.06
Walter McCarty	17	19	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.02	-4	5	-9	14.5	16.2	-1.75	16.7	16.6	0.04
Ron Mercer	57	56	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.08	-7	8	-15	17.1	13.7	3.41	16.7	16.6	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.36,0.43,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, BOS 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.13,0.22,0.27,1	93.1%
CHI 96, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,1	92.7%
UTA 98, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.12,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.22,0.32,0.17,1	92.5%