NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	9.2 [123]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +61.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Comeback	9.0 [372]		LVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): -17.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Scott	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.00	9	80%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	6	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	9	74%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	14	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gustavo Ayon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	8	53%	0.01	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	0.03	-0.14	0.02	14	54%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.01,-0.04,-0.15,-0.17	-0.02	-0.16	-0.02	19	55%	0.18	5	-0.35	4	100%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.12,0.61	0.61	0.22	0.41	0.01	25	71%	0.73	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	8	78%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	7	57%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	17	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Perry Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	8	56%	0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.6	24.0	15.4	25.5	2.4	39.5	131.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +57.4%

OKC +5.5%

ATL -55.6%

OKC +39.5%

OKC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	OKC	NBA	ATL	OKC	NBA
this game	16.5	15.2	15.1	119.8	122.0	105.2
season	14.8	14.4		103.8	107.8
opponent	15.4	15.3		102.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.3	17.1	15.8	16.8	16.5
OKC	15.7	14.9	14.2	15.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	48	48	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.04	15	-17	32	16.2	16.8	-0.65	16.2	14.0	2.14
Dennis Schroder	24	26	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.06	-1	-1	0	15.3	16.9	-1.60	16.8	14.5	2.34
Elton Brand	30	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	7	-16	16.5	16.5	0.04	13.6	16.0	-2.40
Louis Williams	45	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.19	-13	11	-24	16.7	16.2	0.47	14.0	16.2	-2.27
DeMarre Carroll	78	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-4	6	16.8	14.5	2.26	15.2	15.3	-0.15
Kyle Korver	65	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.61	6	-8	14	16.5	16.5	-0.04	15.5	14.3	1.20
Shelvin Mack	61	59	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.52	0	-2	2	16.4	16.7	-0.34	15.0	15.5	-0.55
Paul Millsap	66	66	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.45	-6	4	-10	16.8	15.6	1.15	14.6	16.6	-2.02
Mike Scott	38	38	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.54	-4	2	-6	16.3	16.6	-0.31	16.1	14.5	1.64

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	42	41	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.54	5	-3	8	16.2	14.3	1.93	16.7	16.3	0.38
Thabo Sefolosha	67	68	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-5	12	14.9	16.0	-1.06	16.9	15.1	1.80
Kevin Durant	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	-2	6	15.0	17.1	-2.15	16.6	15.1	1.51
Reggie Jackson	65	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	-1	4	14.9	15.8	-0.94	16.8	15.5	1.37
Serge Ibaka	59	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.55	-4	6	-10	14.5	16.4	-1.85	16.9	15.6	1.30
Jeremy Lamb	36	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	-2	6	15.9	14.7	1.23	14.9	17.4	-2.50
Steven Adams	19	18	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	1	0	16.0	15.0	1.04	16.0	16.6	-0.59
Nick Collison	35	33	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	1	0	16.4	14.4	2.04	16.0	16.7	-0.69
Kendrick Perkins	37	38	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.05	-3	5	-8	14.5	15.6	-1.07	15.9	16.9	-1.04
Perry Jones	13	15	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	10	-18	14.1	15.4	-1.28	16.2	16.5	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.33,0.29,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 100, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.36,0.21,0.43,0.47,1	92.4%
TOR 97, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.42,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.42,1	92.2%
SAS 74, PHX 77	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.36,0.43,0.58,1	91.9%