NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	108		Excitement	5.0 [805]		MVP	Luol Deng (MIA): +26.1%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	2.3 [858]		LVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (PHI): -14.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hollis Thompson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.19	0.01	0.07	10	100%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Henry Sims	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	6	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Covington	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	15	48%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.04	10	60%	0.04	0	0.00	10	80%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Furkan Aldemir	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
JaKarr Sampson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.01	-0.05	8	28%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Ish Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	39%	-0.01	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.03
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	11	29%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.25	0.06	0.05	14	91%	0.28	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.01	5	110%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	72%	0.14	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	80%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Dragic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	8	19%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	13	58%	0.08	6	-0.14	5	80%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.07	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.0	29.6	15.0	29.4	1.5	33.7	138.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.4%

MIA +2.7%

MIA +16.4%

PHI -6.3%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	14.5	15.1	109.1	119.0	104.2
season	14.9	16.0		94.3	102.4
opponent	15.3	14.8		105.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	12.9	18.3	13.0	14.1	14.4
MIA	13.2	14.5	15.2	15.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nerlens Noel	61	61	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-11	11	15.0	13.4	1.59	15.2	13.4	1.82
Furkan Aldemir	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-14	17	10.7	14.6	-3.83	14.2	14.5	-0.34
Isaiah Canaan	57	58	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	0.16	-8	-3	-5	15.9	12.4	3.55	15.1	13.8	1.27
Tim Frazier	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-10	9	12.3	15.2	-2.88	14.2	14.6	-0.41
JaKarr Sampson	45	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.07	-5	-6	1	13.2	15.4	-2.20	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Henry Sims	35	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-4	-3	15.3	14.0	1.29	14.9	14.3	0.63
Robert Covington	67	68	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-7	3	15.3	12.7	2.57	14.6	14.3	0.31
Luc Mbah a Moute	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-7	3	15.3	13.0	2.27	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Hollis Thompson	57	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	-4	-3	13.9	15.1	-1.21	14.1	15.1	-0.94
JaVale McGee	29	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	0	-11	12.7	15.1	-2.45	13.3	15.0	-1.66
Ish Smith	51	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	0	-11	13.3	15.6	-2.25	14.5	14.6	-0.06

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	67	68	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.08	23	-12	35	14.6	14.4	0.14	14.6	14.0	0.57
Goran Dragic	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.02	19	-8	27	13.8	15.9	-2.12	14.9	13.2	1.71
Hassan Whiteside	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-4	19	14.3	14.8	-0.47	14.9	13.8	1.03
Mario Chalmers	44	45	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	0	11	14.5	14.5	-0.04	14.0	14.8	-0.86
Dwyane Wade	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	3	5	14.3	14.7	-0.44	15.3	13.6	1.70
James Ennis	43	42	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	11	-11	15.2	14.0	1.25	13.6	15.0	-1.36
Henry Walker	46	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	17	-23	13.9	15.1	-1.16	14.4	14.4	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	48	46	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	14	-17	14.7	14.4	0.28	14.0	14.8	-0.75
Chris Andersen	35	35	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.11	4	7	-3	14.5	14.5	-0.01	14.3	14.5	-0.17
Tyler Johnson	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	19	-27	16.0	14.4	1.61	11.4	14.7	-3.22
Zoran Dragic	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	19	-27	16.0	14.4	1.61	11.4	14.7	-3.22
Shabazz Napier	29	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	11	-11	15.7	14.0	1.70	14.6	14.4	0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
SAC 97, DAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.55,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.5%
CHA 85, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%