NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	3.7 [1069]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +16.7%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.4 [1158]		LVP	Shabazz Napier (MIA): -5.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	0.01	0.09	10	82%	0.07	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	13	57%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Justin Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	18	38%	-0.03	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02
James Ennis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.01	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.02	-0.00	15	71%	0.18	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	-0.00	0.01	12	84%	0.18	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	8	37%	-0.01	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	27.3	15.8	26.3	3.4	27.2	127.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.2%

SAS +1.3%

SAS +10.2%

SAS +7.1%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.1	95.5	108.9	104.2
season	16.0	15.4		102.4	106.9
opponent	14.9	15.3		101.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	15.2	17.1	15.7	16.5
SAS	14.2	18.4	14.2	16.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	37	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-7	1	17.0	16.1	0.88	15.4	15.9	-0.45
Chris Bosh	67	65	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-10	7	16.9	15.4	1.49	16.4	13.9	2.52
James Ennis	38	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-12	11	15.5	17.2	-1.67	15.9	15.5	0.40
Chris Andersen	40	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-10	7	16.8	16.2	0.58	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Shabazz Napier	47	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-14	15	16.0	17.1	-1.11	16.0	15.4	0.61
Justin Hamilton	53	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-9	5	15.7	17.6	-1.94	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Udonis Haslem	7	7	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.12	-13	0	-13	20.7	16.1	4.59	13.6	15.9	-2.31
Tyler Johnson	48	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	16.1	16.9	-0.78	15.7	15.7	0.06
Mario Chalmers	46	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	-1	-11	17.0	16.0	1.02	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Luol Deng	62	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.09	-15	2	-17	16.7	16.1	0.59	15.4	16.3	-0.90

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	62	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.15	25	-12	37	14.8	17.7	-2.92	17.2	14.8	2.39
Tony Parker	54	54	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.00	16	-3	19	15.5	16.0	-0.50	17.1	15.6	1.50
Tiago Splitter	33	33	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.07	15	-2	17	14.6	16.4	-1.78	18.6	15.2	3.42
Manu Ginobili	46	44	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	3	7	15.3	16.2	-0.90	17.2	15.8	1.34
Matt Bonner	29	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	1	11	14.9	16.1	-1.19	18.7	15.4	3.22
Boris Diaw	33	32	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	11	-9	17.0	14.9	2.10	14.6	17.5	-2.90
Marco Belinelli	28	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	4	5	16.5	15.4	1.11	16.6	16.4	0.18
Tim Duncan	47	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.10	1	12	-11	16.3	15.1	1.16	16.1	17.0	-0.89
Patty Mills	36	35	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.12	-3	16	-19	16.0	15.5	0.50	15.6	17.1	-1.50
Aron Baynes	38	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	17	-21	15.4	15.9	-0.44	15.0	17.5	-2.54
Reggie Williams	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	17.9	15.5	2.34	9.5	17.0	-7.49
Cory Joseph	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	18	-23	17.9	15.5	2.34	9.5	17.0	-7.49
Danny Green	30	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.11	-8	21	-29	16.5	15.3	1.25	16.7	16.4	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, DAL 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ORL 73, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.83,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
SEA 88, NJN 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%