NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	7.3 [352]		MVP	Kevin Seraphin (WAS): +23.1%
Washington Wizards	101		Comeback	1.7 [594]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -17.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Ayres	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	0.00	5	82%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	62%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Patty Mills	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	47%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.01	5	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	16	31%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	14	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Parker	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	18	39%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	8	44%	-0.03	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.13	0.02	8	81%	0.29	1	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.00	-0.03	15	69%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	8	72%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.04	-0.01	9	33%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	6	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	26.2	15.6	27.5	2.7	31.2	128.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +42.1%

WAS +21.1%

SAS -5.0%

SAS -8.5%

WAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	WAS	NBA	SAS	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	14.6	15.1	98.9	107.4	104.2
season	15.4	15.1		106.9	102.9
opponent	15.3	14.9		101.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	16.6	14.5	17.0	16.0
WAS	14.4	16.1	12.7	15.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	13	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-9	10	14.9	16.2	-1.25	16.8	14.3	2.47
Patty Mills	48	48	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-12	16	16.3	15.7	0.64	15.2	14.0	1.16
Manu Ginobili	45	44	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-11	14	14.8	17.1	-2.26	16.0	13.4	2.60
Kyle Anderson	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-9	10	12.0	16.0	-4.04	12.0	14.7	-2.70
Cory Joseph	44	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-10	12	16.6	15.5	1.15	14.3	15.0	-0.67
Tiago Splitter	57	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-9	10	15.2	17.2	-1.96	14.5	14.9	-0.37
Tim Duncan	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-2	-4	15.1	17.2	-2.08	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Jeff Ayres	32	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	18.2	14.9	3.32	15.2	14.3	0.88
Austin Daye	16	17	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	0	-8	15.1	16.2	-1.13	12.1	15.2	-3.08
Boris Diaw	33	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.06	-10	2	-12	17.1	15.4	1.68	14.0	15.0	-0.94
Danny Green	68	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	5	-18	15.9	16.3	-0.48	13.9	16.5	-2.63
Tony Parker	60	58	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.25	-13	5	-18	16.6	14.9	1.80	15.1	13.9	1.12

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	72	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-1	10	15.1	13.2	1.90	16.0	16.0	-0.06
Kevin Seraphin	35	35	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	6	-4	16.3	13.7	2.62	17.5	15.1	2.32
Nene	48	49	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-3	14	14.1	15.2	-1.05	14.9	17.2	-2.30
Rasual Butler	49	48	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	14.3	15.0	-0.74	16.7	15.3	1.40
Andre Miller	21	21	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	1	6	15.7	14.3	1.39	19.3	15.0	4.29
Paul Pierce	55	57	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	5	-2	13.9	15.6	-1.67	15.2	17.2	-1.92
John Wall	73	73	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	7	-6	14.3	15.7	-1.39	15.0	19.3	-4.29
Kris Humphries	46	45	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.23	-3	11	-14	15.2	14.1	1.05	17.2	14.9	2.30
Marcin Gortat	57	58	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.09	7	1	6	13.7	16.1	-2.33	15.2	17.3	-2.12
Martell Webster	14	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	15.9	14.4	1.52	16.5	15.9	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.66,0.86,0.79,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 86, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.81,0.95,1,1,1	92.9%
LAC 106, MIN 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.91,1	92.8%
BOS 86, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.62,0.56,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.76,0.85,0.94,0.98,1	92.7%