NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Excitement	6.0 [613]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): +14.7%
Sacramento Kings	92		Comeback	1.1 [948]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -11.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.05	0.03	20	62%	0.16	1	-0.01	12	75%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.00	0.01	5	91%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	8	44%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	25	49%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Andre Roberson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	2	62%	0.03	1	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Serge Ibaka	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	10	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.03	8	74%	0.17	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	100%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	10	55%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	8	33%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ben McLemore	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	45%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	20	48%	-0.04	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.5	34.8	16.7	25.1	2.8	30.2	138.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +18.7%

SAC -0.7%

OKC +9.9%

OKC +20.6%

OKC +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAC	NBA	OKC	SAC	NBA
this game	14.7	15.6	15.1	110.6	95.8	104.2
season	14.5	14.9		105.7	103.7
opponent	14.8	15.0		107.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.4	14.6	16.1	16.3	14.7
SAC	15.3	15.4	18.2	13.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	49	51	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.21	20	-8	28	15.3	14.2	1.09	16.5	14.5	1.94
Serge Ibaka	65	68	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.14	22	-10	32	14.7	14.8	-0.02	16.4	13.5	2.91
Russell Westbrook	61	64	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.09	23	-11	34	14.9	14.4	0.49	16.2	14.2	2.02
Kevin Durant	69	70	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-3	18	14.9	14.4	0.47	15.8	14.9	0.88
Andre Roberson	44	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-2	16	14.7	14.8	-0.08	16.4	14.8	1.55
Ish Smith	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	13.5	14.8	-1.27	7.7	15.8	-8.15
Perry Jones	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	13.5	14.8	-1.27	7.7	15.8	-8.15
Anthony Morrow	37	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	13	-14	14.6	14.9	-0.29	14.6	16.1	-1.57
Jeremy Lamb	30	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	15	-18	14.0	15.1	-1.09	15.2	15.8	-0.61
Reggie Jackson	41	39	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.24	-14	26	-40	15.1	14.5	0.67	14.7	16.1	-1.42
Nick Collison	27	26	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.02	-8	20	-28	14.7	14.8	-0.06	13.7	16.3	-2.62
Kendrick Perkins	43	42	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.06	-8	20	-28	14.2	15.2	-0.99	15.0	16.0	-0.96

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	33	33	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.17	10	-22	32	15.9	15.4	0.53	15.7	14.2	1.51
Nik Stauskas	31	33	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-15	18	14.5	16.1	-1.59	15.1	14.6	0.49
Ryan Hollins	34	36	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-17	22	15.0	15.9	-0.83	14.8	14.7	0.05
Carl Landry	45	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-16	20	13.6	17.3	-3.69	15.3	14.3	1.00
Ramon Sessions	46	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-12	12	15.2	15.9	-0.75	15.0	14.5	0.58
Reggie Evans	38	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	-3	-6	16.6	14.9	1.77	14.2	15.1	-0.94
Darren Collison	50	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	0	-12	15.9	15.2	0.75	14.5	15.0	-0.58
Ben McLemore	65	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.11	-15	3	-18	16.1	14.5	1.59	14.6	15.1	-0.49
Rudy Gay	72	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.01	-22	10	-32	15.6	15.5	0.14	14.1	16.5	-2.42
Jason Thompson	66	63	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	0.02	-24	12	-36	16.3	13.8	2.52	14.9	14.5	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.43,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.02,0,0,0	92.7%
ATL 111, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.4,0.3,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	91.9%
BOS 102, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.06,0,0	91.9%