NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	7.9 [273]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +54.2%
Phoenix Suns	97		Comeback	2.6 [307]		LVP	Eric Bledsoe (PHX): -37.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.54	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.44,0.54,0.54	0.25	0.31	0.01	21	77%	0.57	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.09	0.01	12	82%	0.29	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	5	100%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Shawne Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	15	47%	0.09	5	-0.22	4	50%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	7	14%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39	0.39	0.21	0.18	-0.00	13	96%	0.50	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.12	-0.00	11	76%	0.35	4	-0.15	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	11	63%	0.12	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	15	52%	-0.01	3	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.37,-0.37,-0.38	-0.38	-0.25	-0.17	-0.04	11	18%	-0.13	7	-0.25	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.8	29.1	15.5	23.2	2.4	33.3	127.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX -9.6%

MIA +12.8%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +46.3%

PHX -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	16.6	15.9	15.1	115.7	110.2	104.2
season	16.0	14.4		102.4	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.3		104.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	16.4	17.8	18.2	16.6
PHX	15.5	13.6	19.2	16.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	61	62	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.33	16	-10	26	15.4	19.2	-3.82	17.1	13.0	4.13
Josh McRoberts	60	61	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.17	17	-11	28	16.5	16.9	-0.45	17.0	13.4	3.61
Chris Bosh	67	66	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-5	16	15.9	18.9	-2.97	16.5	14.1	2.42
Dwyane Wade	62	64	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	-6	18	16.6	16.6	-0.00	16.5	14.5	1.99
Norris Cole	56	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.07	10	-4	14	16.2	17.3	-1.07	16.5	14.9	1.55
Udonis Haslem	37	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	10	-14	18.5	15.3	3.23	14.0	17.2	-3.22
Shabazz Napier	6	4	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	13	-20	17.7	16.6	1.11	14.2	16.0	-1.74
Mario Chalmers	33	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	14	-22	16.1	16.9	-0.81	13.7	17.1	-3.45
Shawne Williams	14	13	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.11	-12	18	-30	15.8	16.8	-1.00	13.3	16.4	-3.05
James Ennis	28	26	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.00	-10	16	-26	19.2	15.4	3.82	13.0	17.1	-4.13

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Len	38	40	0.41	-0.91	1.33	-0.03	15	-21	36	15.0	16.6	-1.60	17.3	16.1	1.22
Anthony Tolliver	30	29	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.01	6	-12	18	14.2	16.8	-2.64	17.8	16.1	1.73
Tyler Ennis	10	12	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.08	8	-14	22	13.4	16.2	-2.83	16.6	16.6	-0.05
Gerald Green	39	42	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.16	6	-12	18	14.3	17.2	-2.92	17.3	16.0	1.33
Marcus Morris	69	70	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-17	28	15.1	18.8	-3.67	17.1	15.0	2.07
Miles Plumlee	35	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	5	-16	16.2	15.7	0.44	15.9	17.1	-1.26
Eric Bledsoe	68	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	7	-20	16.5	13.8	2.73	16.0	18.3	-2.32
Goran Dragic	62	62	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	7	-20	16.5	14.5	1.95	16.5	17.0	-0.48
PJ Tucker	33	33	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.17	-20	14	-34	17.9	14.7	3.20	15.7	17.2	-1.43
Markieff Morris	56	57	-0.94	0.44	-1.37	-0.38	-19	13	-32	17.3	13.5	3.79	16.4	17.1	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.52,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 103, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.08,0	91.5%
CHI 87, CLE 80	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.15,0.15,0	91.3%
PHX 104, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.3,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.31,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	90.8%