NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	8.0 [222]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +29.4%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	2.9 [843]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -26.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.29	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.22	0.11	0.04	7	105%	0.29	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.00	4	83%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	16	56%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	5	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	13	54%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.26,-0.26	-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	13	43%	-0.13	4	-0.13	16	37%	-0.24

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.00	3	150%	0.20	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.04	0.00	26	64%	0.24	3	-0.15	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	60%	0.08	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	10	39%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	6	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24	-0.24	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	13	41%	-0.10	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.8	27.0	16.8	25.0	1.8	35.2	136.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +3.3%

MIA -4.8%

ORL +44.8%

ORL +4.4%

ORL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	18.6	15.4	119.8	108.0	105.7
season	15.1	16.0		109.9	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	15.7	17.4	12.0	14.7
MIA	18.2	17.8	19.5	18.8	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-4	17	14.6	15.4	-0.81	18.9	16.4	2.55
Jameer Nelson	58	59	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-6	21	14.8	14.5	0.27	18.6	18.5	0.02
Rashard Lewis	72	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-2	13	14.3	16.8	-2.47	18.8	17.5	1.23
Hedo Turkoglu	67	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	0	9	14.7	14.6	0.11	18.4	19.2	-0.78
Keith Bogans	37	37	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	5	-1	13.5	15.7	-2.21	17.9	19.0	-1.15
Maurice Evans	32	32	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.08	9	0	9	15.2	14.4	0.84	19.3	18.1	1.15
Keyon Dooling	34	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	9	-9	15.6	14.2	1.39	19.5	17.9	1.60
Adonal Foyle	12	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	13	-17	15.4	14.6	0.81	16.4	18.9	-2.55
Brian Cook	25	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	16	-23	15.6	14.4	1.18	17.9	18.8	-0.89
Carlos Arroyo	19	20	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.01	-5	14	-19	14.8	14.7	0.16	17.5	18.9	-1.37

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	39	36	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-14	19	17.7	19.2	-1.51	14.6	14.8	-0.24
Bobby Jones	26	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-14	19	20.2	17.9	2.28	14.6	14.8	-0.11
Alexander Johnson	37	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-2	-5	18.7	18.4	0.26	15.6	14.1	1.53
Joel Anthony	72	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.25	-3	-6	3	18.8	17.4	1.39	14.0	17.5	-3.43
Mark Blount	33	36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	0	-9	18.3	18.7	-0.45	14.6	14.8	-0.14
Ricky Davis	81	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-3	-3	18.1	25.0	-6.93	14.8	13.7	1.13
Jason Williams	84	83	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	4	-17	18.3	24.7	-6.33	14.8	11.7	3.16
Daequan Cook	63	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.10	-17	8	-25	19.1	17.1	1.97	14.9	14.3	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.55,0.37,0.17,0.02,0	92.3%
MIA 103, PHX 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.63,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.52,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.15,0.02,0	91.5%
PHX 104, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.3,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.31,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	91.5%