NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	4.8 [853]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +18.2%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	1.1 [1104]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): -12.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.01	12	79%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	10	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	90%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.04	-0.04	21	48%	0.12	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	14	47%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	-0.05	14	45%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	22	48%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	6	23%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	-0.00	-0.02	5	9%	-0.07	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	0.8	24.2	15.6	29.4	1.8	25.2	119.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +65.0%

DET -8.4%

DET -1.2%

DET -7.0%

POR +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DET	NBA	POR	DET	NBA
this game	16.1	15.8	15.1	108.9	94.5	104.2
season	15.3	15.7		106.5	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.0	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.7	17.4	14.5	16.7	16.1
DET	14.9	15.4	16.8	16.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-7	26	16.4	15.1	1.22	15.5	16.6	-1.14
Wesley Matthews	67	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.00	18	-6	24	15.1	18.8	-3.72	16.0	15.3	0.67
Damian Lillard	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	2	8	16.6	14.5	2.13	15.7	16.0	-0.37
Nicolas Batum	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	2	8	16.6	14.5	2.13	15.7	16.0	-0.37
Robin Lopez	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.01	11	1	10	16.2	15.8	0.42	16.1	15.4	0.77
Steve Blake	35	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	9	-6	15.9	16.1	-0.18	15.6	15.9	-0.25
Chris Kaman	40	41	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	11	-10	15.8	16.2	-0.42	15.7	15.8	-0.11
Allen Crabbe	38	39	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	17	-22	15.8	16.2	-0.41	15.6	15.9	-0.36
Joel Freeland	22	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.15	-7	19	-26	15.1	16.4	-1.22	16.6	15.5	1.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	22	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-14	16	16.0	15.7	0.36	16.7	15.9	0.83
Spencer Dinwiddie	27	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-14	16	15.6	15.8	-0.20	15.9	16.1	-0.24
Cartier Martin	18	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-11	10	15.0	16.0	-0.96	15.4	16.2	-0.76
Caron Butler	55	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.28	6	-18	24	15.6	16.0	-0.43	16.6	15.2	1.39
D.J. Augustin	51	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.21	3	-15	18	15.7	15.9	-0.19	16.5	15.5	0.96
Greg Monroe	62	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-11	10	16.2	14.8	1.43	16.1	15.9	0.23
Andre Drummond	58	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-6	0	16.1	15.2	0.87	15.4	17.3	-1.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	47	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	1	-14	15.8	15.7	0.13	16.4	15.7	0.69
Brandon Jennings	39	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.06	-15	3	-18	16.3	15.4	0.85	15.5	16.5	-0.96
Kyle Singler	37	36	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	6	-24	15.6	15.9	-0.25	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Josh Smith	39	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.15	-19	7	-26	14.8	16.5	-1.71	16.6	15.7	0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.29,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.03,0	95.2%
MIA 94, NOH 70	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.12,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
POR 96, GSW 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%