NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	4.2 [982]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +10.3%
New Orleans Hornets	70		Comeback	1.0 [577]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (NOH): -10.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.02	0.02	11	83%	0.15	3	-0.05	7	71%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	11	77%	0.08	2	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.05	-0.04	10	50%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	10	48%	0.03	2	-0.03	1	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	14	39%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	1	75%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	17%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	20	39%	-0.08	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	26.2	15.4	29.6	2.5	32.6	133.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +59.5%

NOH -5.8%

NOH -7.8%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	18.3	16.3	15.7	111.9	85.4	100.5
season	16.2	16.0		99.3	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		99.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	19.0	20.7	18.0	18.3
NOH	18.6	17.9	14.3	14.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	66	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.30	28	-4	32	18.6	17.6	1.01	16.9	14.1	2.74
Lamar Odom	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.28	23	1	22	18.0	19.5	-1.53	16.7	15.0	1.65
Caron Butler	65	63	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.18	18	6	12	18.5	17.7	0.79	16.1	17.1	-0.94
Rafer Alston	46	44	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.18	17	7	10	17.8	19.0	-1.15	16.3	16.4	-0.07
Malik Allen	42	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	15	-6	18.0	18.6	-0.60	16.1	16.5	-0.35
Wang Zhi-zhi	20	17	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.08	11	13	-2	17.7	18.5	-0.85	17.8	15.9	1.89
Udonis Haslem	60	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.12	12	12	0	18.9	16.8	2.12	15.8	17.9	-2.05
Dwyane Wade	52	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	22	-20	18.8	17.5	1.31	15.9	17.0	-1.05
John Wallace	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	24	-24	14.2	18.5	-4.30	14.0	16.4	-2.42

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tierre Brown	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-25	26	16.7	16.3	0.42	19.5	18.2	1.31
Steven Smith	43	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-21	18	15.7	17.0	-1.33	19.1	17.5	1.52
David West	29	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.26	-13	-11	-2	15.1	17.0	-1.95	18.1	18.5	-0.39
Robert Traylor	32	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-19	14	15.2	17.0	-1.77	18.5	18.2	0.31
George Lynch	30	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.17	-12	-12	0	14.5	17.4	-2.83	18.4	18.3	0.01
P.J. Brown	43	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-12	0	17.7	14.8	2.83	18.0	18.6	-0.60
Jamaal Magloire	41	41	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-13	2	17.7	15.0	2.66	18.4	18.3	0.04
Stacey Augmon	42	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-9	-6	16.5	16.1	0.40	18.0	18.6	-0.60
Jamal Mashburn	68	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.28	-25	1	-26	16.8	14.1	2.72	18.2	18.7	-0.50
Darrell Armstrong	72	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.24	-25	1	-26	16.3	16.7	-0.42	18.2	19.5	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.12,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 105, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	96.0%
WAS 110, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.03,0	95.6%
CLE 121, CHA 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.23,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.5%