NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Excitement	7.3 [346]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +32.0%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	3.2 [700]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -28.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.32	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.32	0.12	0.19	-0.01	19	61%	0.37	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Jeremy Lamb	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	8	75%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Roberson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	19	50%	0.04	4	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05
Kendrick Perkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	12	57%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.08	0.01	8	56%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	12	61%	0.14	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	7	52%	0.06	4	-0.14	9	67%	-0.04
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.16,-0.29	-0.29	-0.05	-0.24	0.00	13	40%	-0.22	1	-0.06	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.4	29.6	16.7	27.2	2.4	28.3	134.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +25.6%

DET -1.6%

OKC +17.9%

OKC +4.7%

OKC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DET	NBA	OKC	DET	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.1	103.2	100.0	104.2
season	14.5	15.7		105.7	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.7	14.8	14.7	17.1	14.7
DET	15.6	17.2	17.3	14.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	54	54	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-2	6	15.1	14.3	0.77	16.1	16.1	-0.02
Kevin Durant	54	58	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-5	12	14.9	14.5	0.38	16.5	15.3	1.18
Anthony Morrow	47	45	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-6	14	14.2	15.3	-1.05	16.5	15.7	0.82
Kendrick Perkins	43	42	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	-2	6	14.7	14.8	-0.06	17.0	15.3	1.65
Serge Ibaka	66	65	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	5	-8	14.5	15.2	-0.69	15.4	17.6	-2.25
Nick Collison	28	30	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	-4	10	15.6	14.3	1.30	15.5	16.3	-0.83
Steven Adams	34	33	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.22	-3	5	-8	14.3	15.0	-0.69	16.6	15.8	0.88
Russell Westbrook	69	70	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.38	-9	11	-20	14.6	15.2	-0.59	15.3	18.2	-2.88
Jeremy Lamb	40	41	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	0	2	15.4	14.2	1.26	16.7	15.6	1.14
Andre Roberson	30	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	8	-14	14.2	15.0	-0.78	15.6	16.3	-0.71

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	22	24	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.08	3	-5	8	17.2	15.7	1.52	15.9	14.3	1.54
Josh Smith	42	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.40	9	-11	20	14.8	17.1	-2.22	15.5	14.1	1.41
Jonas Jerebko	35	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	3	-8	16.7	15.7	0.99	13.9	15.2	-1.34
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	65	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.37	6	-8	14	15.5	17.2	-1.72	14.6	15.1	-0.59
D.J. Augustin	36	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	4	-10	16.6	15.7	0.89	15.5	14.3	1.26
Brandon Jennings	58	58	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-6	10	15.7	16.6	-0.89	14.3	15.5	-1.26
Andre Drummond	62	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.49	7	-9	16	15.3	17.6	-2.27	15.6	12.9	2.70
Cartier Martin	30	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	6	-14	17.2	15.5	1.72	15.1	14.6	0.59
Greg Monroe	49	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	13	-28	17.7	14.3	3.32	13.5	16.0	-2.52
Kyle Singler	72	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	3	-8	15.7	17.2	-1.52	14.3	15.9	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.09,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 112, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.0%
CHI 88, LAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.04,0	93.0%
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.7%