NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	10.6 [48]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): +31.0%
Orlando Magic	112		Comeback	9.3 [97]		LVP	Thaddeus Young (MIN): -27.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	10	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	52%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.04
Robbie Hummel	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Bennett	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach LaVine	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.01
Chase Budinger	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Rubio	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.06
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.24,-0.3,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.01	-0.22	-0.00	20	48%	-0.09	2	-0.13	4	100%	0.05
Thaddeus Young	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27	-0.06	-0.23	-0.01	16	38%	-0.19	1	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.15	0.16	0.00	9	81%	0.31	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	85%	0.17	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.11	0.01	11	58%	0.22	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.10
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0.09,0.09,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	15	61%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	15	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Devyn Marble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	1	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	15	50%	-0.06	6	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.9	1.7	30.7	16.0	25.2	2.5	37.2	1.6	17.0	154.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.3%

ORL +8.6%

ORL +11.0%

MIN -19.3%

MIN -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.5	15.1	95.4	103.7	104.2
season	15.0	14.9		101.2	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.0		105.9	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIN	14.5	14.6	15.2	15.3	15.2	14.9
ORL	13.2	16.0	13.6	16.0	13.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gorgui Dieng	50	50	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.01	9	-18	27	14.9	14.9	0.01	14.7	14.4	0.36
Anthony Bennett	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	0.0	14.9	-14.92	23.0	14.4	8.55
Chase Budinger	1	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	4.0	15.0	-11.02	10.7	14.6	-3.97
Ricky Rubio	28	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-9	9	14.9	14.9	-0.03	13.6	14.9	-1.30
Shabazz Muhammad	23	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-10	11	15.4	14.8	0.66	14.8	14.5	0.32
Robbie Hummel	29	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-10	11	15.5	14.7	0.82	13.3	15.0	-1.68
Andrew Wiggins	51	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-2	-5	14.8	15.0	-0.18	15.2	13.9	1.23
Zach LaVine	17	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.10	-5	-4	-1	15.2	14.9	0.31	13.5	14.7	-1.22
Mo Williams	63	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-5	1	14.9	15.0	-0.14	15.1	13.7	1.39
Kevin Martin	85	85	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-1	-7	14.8	15.4	-0.66	14.5	14.8	-0.32
Thaddeus Young	79	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	1	-11	14.7	15.5	-0.82	15.0	13.3	1.68
Corey Brewer	57	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-5	1	15.0	14.8	0.18	13.9	15.2	-1.23
Nikola Pekovic	57	55	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.22	-18	9	-27	15.1	14.7	0.40	14.6	14.5	0.07

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	76	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-4	17	15.4	12.6	2.79	14.8	15.2	-0.44
Evan Fournier	78	80	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-1	11	14.3	15.1	-0.84	14.5	16.1	-1.56
Nikola Vucevic	77	80	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	-3	15	14.6	14.4	0.15	14.9	15.0	-0.16
Tobias Harris	85	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-2	13	14.0	16.5	-2.53	14.5	16.4	-1.87
Aaron Gordon	41	43	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	2	5	15.7	13.8	1.82	16.0	14.2	1.72
Channing Frye	57	55	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	9	-9	15.0	14.0	1.07	15.1	14.7	0.36
Devyn Marble	1	0	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	9	-9	12.0	14.6	-2.55	0.0	14.9	-14.92
Maurice Harkless	44	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	9	-9	13.6	15.2	-1.62	15.7	14.4	1.27
Willie Green	11	12	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	6	-3	16.0	14.4	1.64	12.6	15.2	-2.63
Luke Ridnour	32	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	13	-17	12.6	15.4	-2.79	15.2	14.8	0.44
Ben Gordon	38	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.00	-7	16	-23	14.9	14.3	0.57	15.2	14.8	0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.67,0.46,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.75,0.72,0.84,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, TOR 117	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.86,0.95,1	91.8%
SAS 74, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.99,1	90.2%
MIA 89, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.84,1	90.1%