NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	111		Excitement	6.9 [442]		MVP	Steve Novak (TOR): +27.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	104		Comeback	1.5 [383]		LVP	Jose Juan Barea (MIN): -11.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.19	0.09	0.00	6	125%	0.28	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.02	9	71%	0.20	4	-0.09	3	0%	-0.05
Terrence Ross	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	-0.00	0.01	8	83%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	13	56%	0.16	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.04
Greivis Vasquez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Landry Fields	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.03	0.04	17	58%	0.08	4	-0.09	9	78%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
John Salmons	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	19	49%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	22	54%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Alexey Shved	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.01	0.05	13	49%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.02
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	63%	0.09	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	31%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	26.5	15.5	27.2	2.4	39.7	138.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +54.4%

TOR +6.0%

TOR +18.7%

MIN -24.0%

MIN -5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIN	NBA	TOR	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	15.1	116.8	108.3	105.2
season	15.9	14.6		107.2	107.3
opponent	14.5	15.1		104.7	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.0	15.1	14.9	19.1	15.4
MIN	13.2	17.0	16.4	13.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	38	37	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-9	25	15.7	15.2	0.48	15.9	14.1	1.83
Greivis Vasquez	42	41	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-5	17	16.1	14.8	1.39	16.7	13.3	3.39
DeMar DeRozan	68	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.28	3	4	-1	15.6	14.7	0.93	14.3	15.9	-1.58
Kyle Lowry	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	3	1	14.7	17.6	-2.89	14.6	15.5	-0.98
Jonas Valanciunas	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	4	-1	16.2	14.5	1.66	14.9	14.7	0.12
John Salmons	54	55	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	4	-1	15.0	15.9	-0.85	14.8	14.8	-0.07
Charles Hayes	21	23	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	6	-5	15.7	15.3	0.38	16.0	14.4	1.53
Terrence Ross	51	53	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	9	-11	14.8	16.1	-1.30	13.6	16.3	-2.65
Tyler Hansbrough	13	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	3	1	16.5	15.2	1.27	16.5	14.5	1.95
Amir Johnson	66	67	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.31	-9	16	-25	15.0	16.2	-1.16	14.1	16.5	-2.42
Landry Fields	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	7	-7	0.0	15.4	-15.37	4.0	14.9	-10.91

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	26	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	14.0	15.1	-1.03	16.0	15.1	0.93
Alexey Shved	7	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.00	-3	-4	1	12.0	15.0	-3.01	18.0	15.2	2.81
Shabazz Muhammad	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-10	13	15.2	14.7	0.44	26.0	14.0	12.02
Corey Brewer	88	88	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.45	11	-18	29	14.6	17.1	-2.55	15.5	14.1	1.32
Ricky Rubio	52	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-7	7	13.8	16.0	-2.23	16.2	14.5	1.70
Jose Juan Barea	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-3	-1	16.8	13.6	3.20	13.9	16.4	-2.46
Kevin Martin	70	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-1	-5	14.4	15.7	-1.29	13.4	20.3	-6.83
Kevin Love	83	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-7	7	14.6	16.3	-1.75	14.8	18.9	-4.12
Nikola Pekovic	62	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-1	-5	15.3	13.9	1.32	16.8	12.5	4.33
Luc Mbah a Moute	8	7	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.16	-18	11	-29	17.1	14.6	2.55	14.1	15.5	-1.32
Dante Cunningham	36	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	7	-21	15.6	14.3	1.36	13.9	16.2	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	93.1%
SEA 103, LAL 95	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.03,0,0	93.0%
MIL 106, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0	93.0%