NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	5.7 [635]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +22.7%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	1.2 [733]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -9.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.23	0.13	0.09	-0.00	23	69%	0.33	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.07	-0.00	10	76%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	6	79%	0.11	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	15	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.00	3	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.02	-0.02	17	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Bremer	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.01	12	64%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	2	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	24	53%	0.00	4	-0.09	9	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.5	27.6	14.8	23.2	2.6	27.3	118.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +59.6%

BOS -7.3%

BOS -1.2%

BOS -2.0%

MIL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.5	119.1	107.8	101.6
season	15.4	15.6		106.3	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.9	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.7	16.1	16.3	20.0	16.7
BOS	15.9	12.7	19.7	14.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	72	74	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.09	16	-7	23	16.2	18.7	-2.48	16.0	12.9	3.10
Toni Kukoc	55	54	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-4	17	17.3	15.6	1.70	15.0	16.2	-1.13
Michael Redd	66	65	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	0	9	17.7	13.7	4.05	16.0	14.2	1.84
Sam Cassell	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	9	-9	16.4	17.6	-1.19	15.4	15.6	-0.20
Anthony Mason	64	64	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	3	3	16.1	18.2	-2.03	15.7	15.0	0.63
Jason Caffey	30	32	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	6	-3	17.4	16.3	1.06	14.5	16.1	-1.58
Kevin Ollie	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.05	7	2	5	17.1	16.4	0.67	14.0	16.6	-2.63
Ervin Johnson	29	30	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	13	-17	16.0	17.0	-1.03	17.0	14.7	2.27
Tim Thomas	24	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	14	-19	15.5	17.2	-1.70	15.0	15.7	-0.72

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	29	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-10	11	16.7	14.9	1.82	16.8	16.6	0.21
Grant Long	7	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-4	-1	16.0	15.4	0.55	19.0	16.5	2.47
Eric Williams	51	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-7	5	16.4	14.3	2.08	16.4	17.1	-0.66
J.R. Bremer	75	74	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-12	15	15.4	15.7	-0.29	16.7	16.8	-0.12
Vin Baker	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-5	1	15.7	15.4	0.29	16.2	17.0	-0.80
Tony Delk	43	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	2	-13	15.2	15.7	-0.54	16.2	17.1	-0.93
Kedrick Brown	60	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	3	-15	15.4	15.6	-0.22	16.4	17.2	-0.81
Walter McCarty	64	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	14.3	18.3	-3.96	17.3	15.3	2.02
Paul Pierce	83	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	-1	-7	15.5	15.3	0.22	16.9	14.6	2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.21,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.02,0	94.3%
DEN 115, NOP 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.1%
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	94.0%