NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	103		Excitement	7.5 [318]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +19.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	95		Comeback	1.0 [210]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -26.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.08	0.02	10	87%	0.25	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Vin Baker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	60%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	52%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	18	51%	-0.02	2	-0.05	13	69%	0.01
Jelani McCoy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Shammond Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	0.00	9	42%	-0.05	3	-0.07	6	33%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Penberthy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.10	0.02	13	57%	-0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	0.00	4	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.04	0.02	24	44%	-0.15	1	-0.02	11	0%	-0.22
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	10	20%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.10	-0.00	25	35%	-0.21	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	30.9	15.0	30.0	2.4	30.6	134.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +62.4%

SEA +26.9%

LAL -16.7%

LAL -24.3%

SEA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	LAL	NBA	SEA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.3	15.5	108.4	102.2	100.9
season	15.2	15.6		103.8	106.8
opponent	15.2	15.7		101.8	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	11.3	15.5	13.2	18.3	14.4
LAL	15.7	16.5	17.0	16.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	35	34	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-3	14	15.9	13.5	2.48	15.4	16.7	-1.29
Jelani McCoy	45	45	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	-9	26	12.3	16.3	-4.01	16.5	16.0	0.53
Desmond Mason	32	30	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	-2	12	16.0	13.6	2.44	16.3	16.3	0.01
Vin Baker	58	56	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.26	2	6	-4	15.2	13.2	1.99	15.7	17.1	-1.37
Rashard Lewis	68	66	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	5	-2	13.4	16.8	-3.35	16.2	16.5	-0.37
Gary Payton	76	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	8	-8	13.7	17.0	-3.28	16.0	17.2	-1.13
Patrick Ewing	74	73	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	11	-14	14.4	14.5	-0.12	16.3	16.1	0.14
Ruben Patterson	62	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	10	-12	13.7	15.7	-2.07	16.7	15.5	1.20
Shammond Williams	25	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	6	-4	18.6	12.9	5.67	17.9	15.6	2.26

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	10	10	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-15	22	15.4	16.4	-0.96	17.3	14.0	3.26
Mike Penberthy	19	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-8	8	18.3	15.7	2.59	16.3	13.9	2.50
Greg Foster	18	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	17.8	15.9	1.95	12.0	14.9	-2.90
Ron Harper	42	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	16.7	15.9	0.83	11.6	16.5	-4.96
Horace Grant	80	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-9	10	16.3	16.1	0.21	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Shaquille O'Neal	73	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-7	6	16.0	17.2	-1.20	15.0	11.9	3.11
Brian Shaw	26	26	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-7	6	16.3	16.2	0.12	18.3	12.9	5.41
Isaiah Rider	51	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-5	2	15.9	16.7	-0.83	16.5	11.6	4.96
Rick Fox	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	2	-12	16.3	16.2	0.05	12.2	16.9	-4.63
Robert Horry	15	17	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	4	-16	15.5	16.4	-0.94	14.4	14.4	0.04
Kobe Bryant	81	83	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	4	-16	15.8	19.1	-3.24	13.6	19.5	-5.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.13,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.33,0.26,0.04,0.05,0.02,0	93.9%
OKC 97, BOS 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.31,0.19,0.4,0.19,0.16,0.06,0.05,0	93.2%
TOR 111, MIN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0	93.0%