NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	132		Excitement	3.7 [1070]		MVP	Kevin Love (MIN): +8.8%
Denver Nuggets	128		Comeback	1.1 [1056]		LVP	JJ Hickson (DEN): -6.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	21	60%	0.13	4	-0.05	13	85%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	10	57%	0.08	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	5	82%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	10	62%	0.07	3	-0.04	6	50%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	56%	0.06	2	-0.03	17	94%	0.05
Shabazz Muhammad	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	44%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	2	62%	0.03	4	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Chase Budinger	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	8	64%	0.01	2	-0.03	9	67%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	0.00	0.11	11	78%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	16	63%	0.09	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.02	3	57%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	22	53%	0.02	3	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.17	-0.00	0.20	16	79%	0.02	4	-0.05	7	86%	-0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.7	35.0	15.7	26.0	1.8	43.7	152.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +8.1%

MIN +23.9%

MIN +8.3%

MIN +5.6%

MIN +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	12.0	15.1	116.8	113.3	105.2
season	14.6	14.0		107.3	104.5
opponent	14.9	14.5		106.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.3	13.5	15.0	13.3	13.5
DEN	12.1	12.6	11.7	11.6	12.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	93	92	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.50	-3	7	-10	12.7	17.5	-4.84	11.7	13.4	-1.73
Corey Brewer	89	87	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.49	-5	9	-14	12.6	17.0	-4.37	11.7	13.0	-1.33
Dante Cunningham	60	61	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	4	-4	12.5	14.7	-2.16	11.8	12.2	-0.41
Jose Juan Barea	65	64	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	6	-8	13.4	13.6	-0.23	11.1	13.1	-1.96
Kevin Martin	75	76	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.29	-1	5	-6	12.1	16.2	-4.10	12.0	11.9	0.16
Chase Budinger	28	27	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.25	17	-13	30	15.5	12.8	2.69	11.7	12.1	-0.35
Ricky Rubio	58	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.39	-6	10	-16	14.4	12.5	1.89	12.9	10.9	2.04
Shabazz Muhammad	24	26	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.11	9	-5	14	17.0	12.6	4.37	13.0	11.7	1.33
Gorgui Dieng	9	9	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	17.8	13.1	4.63	8.8	12.2	-3.47
Nikola Pekovic	52	52	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	15.2	12.1	3.07	13.4	10.8	2.65
Luc Mbah a Moute	12	12	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	3	-2	14.8	13.4	1.48	11.6	12.0	-0.44

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jan Vesely	9	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-3	2	10.1	12.1	-2.02	17.8	13.1	4.70
Timofey Mozgov	21	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-2	0	12.7	11.8	0.85	15.3	13.1	2.24
Kenneth Faried	76	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.62	15	-19	34	11.5	12.9	-1.37	13.8	12.8	1.00
Ty Lawson	94	94	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.49	8	-12	20	12.2	10.6	1.61	13.7	12.8	0.87
Aaron Brooks	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-4	4	11.2	12.5	-1.28	13.5	13.5	0.05
Wilson Chandler	89	89	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.51	8	-12	20	12.3	10.7	1.55	13.0	15.3	-2.31
Darrell Arthur	33	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.18	-17	13	-30	12.8	11.6	1.15	12.3	14.0	-1.68
Randy Foye	99	100	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.47	4	-8	12	12.0	11.5	0.54	13.8	11.5	2.23
Evan Fournier	36	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.11	-16	12	-28	10.5	12.7	-2.20	13.5	13.5	-0.08
JJ Hickson	66	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.17	-19	15	-34	12.5	11.2	1.30	12.5	14.8	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	96.1%
MIA 101, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.18,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
DAL 92, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%