NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	3.2 [1126]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.3%
Houston Rockets	88		Comeback	1.1 [762]		LVP	Eddie Griffin (HOU): -7.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.02	0.04	7	100%	0.13	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	14	53%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	11	52%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	18	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.07	12	70%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Juaquin Hawkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.03	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	12	54%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	12	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	15	60%	0.01	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	13	40%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.0	25.4	16.4	27.4	2.7	35.3	131.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.9%

SAS +4.9%

SAS +4.0%

SAS +6.6%

HOU -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.5	107.8	96.7	101.6
season	15.7	16.3		102.5	101.7
opponent	15.4	15.4		100.4	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	17.0	16.0	15.4	15.7
HOU	17.2	18.2	17.5	12.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	74	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-1	11	15.3	17.7	-2.45	16.5	14.3	2.21
Tony Parker	68	69	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	1	7	15.4	16.7	-1.26	16.2	15.7	0.48
Stephen Jackson	66	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	1	7	16.4	13.8	2.65	17.3	12.8	4.53
Bruce Bowen	59	62	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	1	7	15.2	16.7	-1.44	15.8	16.8	-0.98
Malik Rose	41	43	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	0	9	16.5	15.1	1.43	15.7	16.5	-0.83
Manu Ginobili	55	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	7	-5	15.4	16.2	-0.81	14.9	17.8	-2.86
David Robinson	57	57	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	9	-9	15.8	15.5	0.30	15.8	16.6	-0.85
Steve Kerr	22	22	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.07	1	8	-7	16.7	15.4	1.26	15.7	16.2	-0.48
Kevin Willis	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	10	-11	15.0	15.8	-0.80	16.9	16.0	0.86

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juaquin Hawkins	21	20	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-9	9	14.3	16.6	-2.34	17.6	15.2	2.46
Maurice Taylor	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-15	21	14.8	17.4	-2.51	16.1	15.3	0.78
Moochie Norris	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-2	-5	16.4	16.0	0.35	14.4	16.0	-1.58
Glen Rice	52	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-11	13	14.8	17.8	-3.03	15.9	15.5	0.45
James Posey	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-1	-7	17.7	15.2	2.57	15.7	15.7	0.03
Yao Ming	65	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-10	11	16.6	14.7	1.95	15.7	15.7	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	26	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	1	-11	14.7	16.6	-1.95	15.7	15.7	0.01
Eddie Griffin	45	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.06	-15	6	-21	17.4	14.8	2.51	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Steve Francis	85	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-5	1	16.0	16.8	-0.80	16.0	12.1	3.89
Cuttino Mobley	69	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	1	-11	16.8	13.7	3.11	14.9	18.5	-3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 123, DET 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
TOR 95, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
MIN 132, DEN 128	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%