NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	123		Excitement	3.9 [1002]		MVP	Doug Christie (TOR): +12.6%
Detroit Pistons	106		Comeback	1.0 [562]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -19.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.00	-0.00	14	75%	0.15	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dell Curry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.03	14	60%	0.08	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	7	87%	0.08	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	60%	0.01	3	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.06	10	36%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	16	50%	-0.03	3	-0.05	12	67%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	8	75%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	13	60%	0.07	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-0.00	-0.02	22	37%	-0.13	2	-0.04	13	69%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.19	-0.00	-0.00	22	41%	-0.14	3	-0.06	17	76%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.6	33.2	15.7	34.0	0.6	29.5	139.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +51.9%

TOR +4.0%

TOR +1.0%

DET -6.9%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	14.7	13.0	15.2	117.1	102.9	101.7
season	15.5	14.1		101.8	104.2
opponent	15.3	14.9		103.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.2	13.6	14.4	18.0	14.7
DET	12.5	12.5	14.4	12.5	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	79	79	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.07	16	1	15	14.6	15.0	-0.34	13.1	12.6	0.45
Doug Christie	87	88	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	6	5	15.1	12.8	2.26	12.6	15.2	-2.61
Tracy McGrady	53	51	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	10	-3	14.8	14.6	0.22	13.1	12.9	0.21
Kevin Willis	58	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	13	-9	15.2	14.1	1.16	13.2	12.7	0.58
Dell Curry	45	42	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.14	14	3	11	14.0	15.3	-1.31	13.5	12.6	0.85
Antonio Davis	52	52	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	5	7	14.7	14.7	-0.06	12.2	13.7	-1.46
Muggsy Bogues	62	61	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	8	1	14.5	14.9	-0.38	12.8	13.2	-0.45
Alvin Williams	43	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	9	-1	15.1	14.4	0.66	13.5	12.6	0.90
Charles Oakley	38	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	13	-9	13.6	15.3	-1.68	13.4	12.7	0.76
John Thomas	8	6	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	17	-17	15.5	14.6	0.86	11.7	13.1	-1.38

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jud Buechler	15	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-14	11	13.2	12.9	0.27	13.9	14.9	-0.98
Loy Vaught	13	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-11	5	14.5	12.8	1.71	15.2	14.6	0.59
Marcus Brown	18	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.11	-9	-8	-1	13.7	12.8	0.84	13.9	14.9	-0.93
Terry Mills	51	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-11	5	14.7	11.3	3.44	14.0	15.4	-1.37
Michael Curry	34	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	-4	-9	12.0	13.5	-1.49	16.1	14.0	2.18
Jerry Stackhouse	83	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.29	1	-18	19	13.2	12.0	1.14	14.0	17.4	-3.36
Lindsey Hunter	85	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	-9	1	12.8	13.7	-0.84	14.9	13.9	0.93
Christian Laettner	72	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	-5	-7	12.6	13.7	-1.10	15.0	14.1	0.90
Jerome Williams	58	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	0	-17	12.1	14.1	-1.95	14.3	15.2	-0.86
Grant Hill	86	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	-5	-7	12.7	14.3	-1.58	15.3	12.0	3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	96.7%
ORL 109, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0	96.2%
MEM 97, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%