NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	2.3 [1266]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +9.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	74		Comeback	1.0 [917]		LVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): -8.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.20	0.00	0.10	12	86%	0.11	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	11	65%	0.09	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	15	43%	0.04	2	-0.03	5	60%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	62%	0.06	6	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwayne Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	5	80%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	14	57%	0.04	4	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	41%	-0.02	2	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	5	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.18	0.00	-0.10	11	31%	-0.05	5	-0.04	10	60%	-0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	13	23%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.5	29.5	19.6	27.2	3.7	30.3	139.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.7%

DAL +9.1%

CLE -2.5%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CLE	NBA	DAL	CLE	NBA
this game	16.9	15.1	15.4	102.2	82.2	105.7
season	16.1	16.4		108.9	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.4		104.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	15.0	18.3	19.4	16.9
CLE	14.8	17.7	13.0	14.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	72	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.04	13	5	8	17.0	16.6	0.47	15.0	15.5	-0.54
Dirk Nowitzki	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.18	20	-2	22	17.0	16.8	0.22	15.3	14.4	0.89
Jason Terry	57	57	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	10	-2	17.2	16.5	0.66	14.4	16.2	-1.71
Devin Harris	59	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	8	2	16.5	17.7	-1.18	14.6	16.0	-1.35
Eddie Jones	56	55	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.13	14	4	10	16.5	17.7	-1.24	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Trenton Hassell	43	44	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	9	0	17.9	16.1	1.82	15.6	14.6	1.03
Jerry Stackhouse	55	54	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	10	-2	17.2	16.5	0.73	15.6	14.2	1.45
Brandon Bass	31	31	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	19	-20	16.4	17.2	-0.88	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Jose Juan Barea	8	8	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.11	9	9	0	15.4	17.1	-1.71	16.9	14.9	1.98

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.16	-7	-11	4	16.7	14.9	1.85	18.2	16.8	1.45
Dwayne Jones	11	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-15	12	17.2	14.8	2.41	14.5	17.2	-2.74
Shannon Brown	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	-12	6	16.9	14.8	2.06	12.8	17.4	-4.65
Donyell Marshall	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-12	6	15.0	15.1	-0.15	16.0	17.2	-1.20
Devin Brown	34	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	-8	-2	15.4	14.9	0.46	15.3	17.8	-2.47
Damon Jones	29	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.12	-12	-6	-6	15.8	14.7	1.02	16.0	17.3	-1.30
Daniel Gibson	61	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-11	4	15.1	15.0	0.10	18.4	13.8	4.68
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	61	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-11	4	15.0	15.1	-0.05	17.7	15.1	2.66
Larry Hughes	68	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-11	4	14.9	15.5	-0.51	17.0	16.7	0.35
LeBron James	68	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	-6	-6	14.5	17.0	-2.50	17.2	15.9	1.26
Drew Gooden	77	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	-5	-8	14.6	17.6	-2.98	16.7	18.1	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, CLE 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%
ORL 112, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
HOU 102, LAC 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%