NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	6.1 [596]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +15.4%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.1 [1055]		LVP	Jose Calderon (DAL): -10.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	16	66%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	17	56%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
DeJuan Blair	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	6	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Shawn Marion	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	15	52%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	11	36%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	9	84%	0.20	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.03	15	71%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.03	9	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	7	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	55%	0.12	4	-0.13	9	78%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	14	47%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	26.4	15.4	25.4	1.7	38.1	130.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.1%

SAS +19.1%

SAS +7.6%

DAL -12.0%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	15.1	110.4	119.1	105.2
season	15.3	15.0		109.0	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.0		101.1	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.5	16.1	15.8	15.9	15.5
SAS	13.7	15.2	14.2	16.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	56	54	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-13	20	15.6	15.5	0.03	15.4	13.9	1.46
Devin Harris	46	42	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-6	6	16.0	15.2	0.80	12.7	16.4	-3.67
DeJuan Blair	26	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-4	2	14.2	16.0	-1.80	13.6	15.2	-1.65
Brandan Wright	37	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-5	4	16.7	14.8	1.89	13.5	15.5	-1.98
Shawn Marion	55	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	-3	0	15.0	16.3	-1.35	15.1	14.3	0.82
Samuel Dalembert	35	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-4	2	15.4	15.6	-0.22	17.0	13.5	3.50
Wayne Ellington	27	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	0	-6	17.0	15.0	2.08	12.0	15.7	-3.71
Monta Ellis	75	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-4	2	14.7	18.5	-3.82	15.4	12.4	2.94
Jose Calderon	61	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	2	-10	15.2	16.1	-0.81	15.1	14.0	1.09
Dirk Nowitzki	62	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	7	-20	16.3	14.1	2.20	15.3	13.9	1.43

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	53	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.17	10	-4	14	14.8	14.7	0.10	16.3	14.6	1.78
Danny Green	45	46	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-7	20	15.3	14.3	1.05	16.2	14.9	1.34
Kawhi Leonard	68	67	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	0	6	15.2	13.6	1.59	14.9	17.0	-2.14
Tony Parker	64	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	-2	10	15.2	13.9	1.22	14.8	17.0	-2.22
Boris Diaw	52	55	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.24	-2	8	-10	14.5	15.0	-0.51	15.3	15.9	-0.63
Tim Duncan	67	66	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	7	-8	16.3	11.0	5.23	14.8	17.2	-2.46
Manu Ginobili	46	48	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	10	-14	14.2	15.3	-1.12	14.7	16.4	-1.62
Marco Belinelli	33	36	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	8	-10	12.7	15.9	-3.19	16.6	14.9	1.76
Patty Mills	30	33	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	8	-10	13.9	15.2	-1.22	17.0	14.8	2.22
Aron Baynes	12	13	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	2	2	10.5	15.4	-4.89	18.2	15.1	3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.71,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.82,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.91,1	94.1%
SAS 115, NYK 128	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.7,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%
WAS 89, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%