NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	98		Excitement	7.4 [347]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +33.9%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	3.1 [310]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -19.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	18	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Harrison Barnes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Crawford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Draymond Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	67%	0.04	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Klay Thompson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	15	37%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.2,-0.19	0.03	-0.18	0.04	27	57%	0.08	6	-0.27	6	67%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34	0.34	0.22	0.12	0.01	16	73%	0.34	0	0.00	12	92%	0.04
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	2	86%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.10	-0.00	10	55%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	9	45%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	83%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	13	46%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	13	43%	0.03	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	32.5	15.5	27.2	2.0	30.3	131.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +45.2%

TOR +7.1%

GSW -16.6%

TOR +15.7%

GSW -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	14.1	17.0	15.1	106.5	111.8	105.2
season	14.2	15.9		105.9	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.3		104.2	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	14.5	13.3	15.4	14.1
TOR	16.7	15.5	17.2	18.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Crawford	10	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-2	-2	15.8	13.9	1.91	15.6	17.2	-1.57
Steve Blake	31	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-4	2	15.1	13.6	1.56	16.0	17.5	-1.51
Marreese Speights	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-1	-4	16.1	13.9	2.23	15.4	17.2	-1.82
Draymond Green	32	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-1	-4	14.9	13.7	1.19	16.1	17.6	-1.47
Harrison Barnes	44	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	0	-6	14.1	14.1	-0.06	16.9	17.1	-0.17
Klay Thompson	50	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-4	2	14.1	14.1	-0.04	17.4	16.6	0.73
Andrew Bogut	59	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-5	4	13.7	14.8	-1.17	17.3	16.5	0.81
Stephen Curry	83	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	13.9	16.1	-2.23	17.2	15.4	1.82
David Lee	83	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	13.9	16.1	-2.23	17.2	15.4	1.82
Andre Iguodala	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-3	0	13.6	15.0	-1.36	17.6	16.1	1.47

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	80	80	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.39	12	-6	18	17.5	14.3	3.15	14.3	12.7	1.55
Kyle Lowry	59	62	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.45	7	-1	8	17.0	17.0	0.03	13.8	14.8	-1.04
Amir Johnson	58	57	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.44	7	-1	8	17.1	17.0	0.08	14.0	14.3	-0.35
Patrick Patterson	55	55	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-1	8	16.9	17.2	-0.28	14.5	13.5	0.93
Greivis Vasquez	44	42	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	-3	12	16.7	17.3	-0.60	15.5	12.9	2.54
Jonas Valanciunas	46	46	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	8	-10	17.0	17.0	-0.04	13.3	14.8	-1.50
John Salmons	41	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	8	-10	17.0	17.1	-0.08	13.7	14.4	-0.70
Landry Fields	50	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	11	-16	16.9	17.2	-0.31	13.2	15.2	-2.05
Nando De Colo	6	5	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.04	-2	8	-10	13.7	17.3	-3.59	14.4	14.1	0.32
Tyler Hansbrough	26	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.10	-1	7	-8	17.5	16.8	0.66	15.3	13.7	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.59,0.76,0.86,0.81,0.63,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	91.6%
CHH 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	91.4%
CHI 83, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.44,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.89,0.79,0.97,1,1	91.2%