NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.9 [291]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (POR): +32.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	1.7 [856]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -35.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	9	62%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Nene	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.02	6	67%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.05	21	63%	0.08	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.04	8	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	11	45%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.32,-0.33	-0.16	-0.15	0.01	14	23%	-0.29	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.11
Kenyon Martin	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.12	-0.23	0.00	17	35%	-0.12	3	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.16	-0.00	18	68%	0.32	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	7	56%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.13	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	14	53%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	4	43%	-0.03	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.05
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	16	45%	-0.15	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.3	28.5	17.7	24.2	2.8	39.7	139.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +45.0%

POR +9.8%

POR +12.1%

DEN -10.3%

DEN -6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	16.2	17.5	15.5	110.6	112.8	104.0
season	14.8	15.8		103.8	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.9	15.4	17.1	16.5	16.2
POR	16.8	18.0	18.9	16.3	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	32	31	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.14	7	-10	17	15.6	16.6	-1.01	16.4	18.1	-1.72
Nene	36	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-3	3	17.4	15.4	1.97	20.4	15.3	5.05
Andre Miller	70	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.26	2	-5	7	15.8	18.2	-2.40	16.9	19.9	-2.92
Kenyon Martin	72	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	0	-3	15.9	18.2	-2.37	17.2	18.6	-1.34
Bryon Russell	41	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	1	-5	17.1	15.4	1.64	17.7	17.2	0.46
Earl Boykins	45	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-2	1	16.2	16.3	-0.10	17.4	17.6	-0.20
Carmelo Anthony	72	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.48	-4	1	-5	15.9	17.8	-1.92	17.0	20.5	-3.54
Marcus Camby	57	57	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	9	-21	16.6	15.4	1.24	17.6	17.1	0.58

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	65	65	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-8	19	18.6	13.8	4.88	16.4	15.7	0.62
Zach Randolph	50	50	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	2	-1	17.5	17.4	0.11	16.0	16.6	-0.59
Nick Van Exel	70	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	3	-3	17.0	19.5	-2.51	16.6	14.5	2.12
Sebastian Telfair	24	24	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	-3	9	20.0	16.5	3.59	17.1	15.9	1.26
Ruben Patterson	58	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	4	-5	15.9	20.7	-4.78	16.1	16.4	-0.24
Damon Stoudamire	78	77	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.28	0	3	-3	17.1	21.1	-4.05	15.6	22.4	-6.79
Darius Miles	35	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	2	-1	17.1	17.7	-0.62	15.3	16.9	-1.59
Theo Ratliff	50	49	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.05	-3	6	-9	17.9	16.8	1.11	17.0	15.1	1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.95,1,1	92.7%
POR 95, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.98,1	92.6%
DET 102, DEN 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.43,0.41,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.64,0.58,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.89,1,1	92.5%