NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	110		Excitement	2.9 [1190]		MVP	Terrence Jones (HOU): +12.5%
Houston Rockets	118		Comeback	1.0 [1269]		LVP	Will Bynum (DET): -7.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	11	70%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	2	125%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.13	0.01	0.12	17	62%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	24	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	13	41%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	11	38%	-0.01	5	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	0.06	10	60%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Jones	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.02	15	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.02	7	74%	0.11	3	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.07	5	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	16	50%	0.05	4	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	-0.03	4	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	26.1	16.3	28.6	2.4	30.3	130.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +48.4%

DET -0.8%

DET -2.7%

HOU +2.1%

HOU +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	13.4	15.1	107.8	119.2	105.2
season	15.0	14.3		104.7	109.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	15.6	14.5	13.5	15.3
HOU	11.3	11.5	13.2	17.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	11	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-8	8	17.9	14.9	2.96	9.4	13.9	-4.50
Kyle Singler	48	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.50	15	-23	38	14.1	16.3	-2.23	13.9	12.8	1.11
Jonas Jerebko	19	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-5	2	17.5	14.7	2.78	10.0	14.1	-4.11
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	-1	-6	13.3	15.8	-2.43	16.5	12.6	3.93
Will Bynum	41	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-12	16	14.7	15.7	-0.97	15.0	12.2	2.83
Brandon Jennings	61	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	4	-16	15.7	14.7	0.97	12.2	15.0	-2.83
Andre Drummond	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-5	2	15.0	15.9	-0.90	14.4	11.2	3.18
Josh Smith	88	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	0	-8	14.9	17.6	-2.67	13.9	10.1	3.75
Greg Monroe	76	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	6	-20	15.9	13.5	2.32	12.1	16.7	-4.59
Rodney Stuckey	78	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	4	-16	15.7	13.9	1.82	13.2	13.8	-0.60

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	82	83	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-7	22	13.7	11.6	2.14	14.9	17.0	-2.13
Dwight Howard	71	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	-5	18	14.3	11.1	3.15	15.0	16.0	-1.08
Terrence Jones	66	68	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-4	16	14.1	12.0	2.09	15.2	15.4	-0.26
Jordan Hamilton	67	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	0	8	14.1	11.7	2.43	15.1	15.6	-0.48
Patrick Beverley	79	82	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.31	2	6	-4	13.9	11.3	2.59	15.0	16.3	-1.29
Jeremy Lin	37	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	9	-10	11.4	14.5	-3.08	16.6	14.4	2.23
Omri Casspi	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	8	-8	11.7	14.1	-2.43	15.6	15.1	0.48
Donatas Motiejunas	33	34	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	12	-16	12.0	14.1	-2.09	15.4	15.2	0.26
Omer Asik	28	29	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.21	-5	13	-18	11.1	14.3	-3.15	16.0	15.0	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	97.3%
SAS 83, MIN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1	97.3%
GSW 94, WAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%